Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Mon Aug 26 19:48:54 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Outside of 1) debates; 2) primaries; 3) candidates entering or dropping out of the race (and in general elections, the conventions) instances of "big news" are rare. Maybe 1 or 2 stories per cycle meets the threshold, e.g. Kavanaugh in the 2018 midterms. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The "advanced" skill in polling analysis most people miss is that you should be much more inclined to believe there's been a significant shift in the polls after big news or campaign events (e.g. debates), and much less inclined to do so when there hasn't been. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bryanjoiner But there are lot of polls out and most of them are signs that nothing much is happening, at least not anything acute and short term. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2019 Hibernated