Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Mon Aug 19 15:31:22 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AJentleson @jbview No. Trump held a variety of positions that ranged from moderate to reactionary. It's a bit of a mess, but voters were not necessarily wrong to view him as being as more moderate than previous GOP nominees, despite efforts by Clinton/the media to highlight his more extreme views. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AJentleson @jbview OK, but that's not how the median voter thought about him, per polls. And he needed a lot of those median voters to vote for him because his base alone isn't big enough to win, even with the advantages it gave him in the Electoral College. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattGrossmann @gelliottmorris @jbview @AJentleson FWIW, in the data we use for our Senate and House forecasts, it's not clear that the extremism penalty has declined at all since the 90s. It has a lot of confounders. For instance, one reason the incumbency advantage has declined is probably because the parties are more extreme. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 19, 2019 Hibernated