Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Tue Aug 13 11:10:29 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Looking forward to Nov. 4 '20 when the CW is that Elizabeth Warren rode to the White House on the basis of a populist surge and I'm all "#Ackshawlly, she won because Trump's populist trade war lowered industrial production in the Midwest, causing him to narrowly lose Wisconsin." — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 13, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's probably worth asking how much Trump is lowering his re-election chances with this trade war stuff. Off-hand, I'd guess it's on the order of 5-10 percentage points, which, while not enormous, is a bigger impact than the large majority of events political reporters cover. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 13, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, I'm too lazy to look up what our model says about this so this might be slightly off, but my assumption is that lowering GDP growth by 1 percentage point would reduce Trump's re-election chances by something like 10 to 15 percentage points. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 13, 2019 Hibernated