Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Wed Aug 07 23:47:37 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you think you can outsmart the algorithm by eyeballing and spitballing, more power to you, but most articles claiming there's an increase/decrease in Trump approval when our algo doesn't see one haven't held up well and are just picking up on noise to build clicky narratives. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

p.s. We spent a lot of time on our approval rating algorithm. It's pretty smart about how to balance lower-quality, high-frequency polls vs. high-quality, low-frequency polls, for instance. It's been really good about avoiding both false negatives and false positives on Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah. The notion of "show, don't tell, the reader" (i.e. lay out the case and leave some things unsaid) can be valuable in some contexts, like maybe a longform magazine feature. But it's a pretty bad idea for an A1 story in the NYT, when you want to be direct and avoid ambiguity. — PolitiTweet.org

This is a great interview by @lizzieohreally. Baquet really lays it all out. This, here, is the problem. It's not m… https://t.co/nEp3kMWf0B

Posted Aug. 8, 2019 Hibernated