Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Thu Jul 25 16:19:34 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's also a fairly large volume of polling that shows Biden (and to some extent Bernie) performing quite well vs. Trump in head-to-head matchups in the Midwest. I wouldn't put a ton of stock in that data, either. But it's not just one poll in Ohio. https://t.co/MRJGdzs6iQ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

All of which is… fine… to get a rough approximation. But the real-world margin of error on those estimates is (at least) several points wide, which is much too large to come to many firm conclusions about the tipping point, especially if you're not working probabilistically. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You're making this way too complicated. My critique is that you're offering false precision. There's just not that much we can say about the Electoral College right now beyond a couple of fairly loose priors (e.g. its more likely to help than hurt Trump). — PolitiTweet.org

--the data covers many modes: online, live interview RBS+result, online+live interview RBS, in-person, and the har… https://t.co/IghXYVTtTI

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated