Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Tue Jul 16 17:39:02 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RachelBitecofer @gelliottmorris @BayesReality I think you're pretty badly mistaken in the implication that a good model needs to make an extremely precise prediction, in fact pretty much the opposite is true, often good models are about quantifying uncertainty, but you probably knew I'd say that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 16, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @RachelBitecofer @BayesReality Our model had like a 25% chance (!) of Trump winning the electoral college *conditional upon losing the popular vote by 2 points*! Not really very unlikely at all, you just had to have a good model. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 16, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RachelBitecofer @BayesReality @gelliottmorris We actually wrote about it a lot throughout the campaign. I don't want to argue with you put please get your facts straight. https://t.co/LrkqrYzk8e https://t.co/f8GJKnIKTe — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 16, 2019 Hibernated