Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Thu Jul 11 13:56:10 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's a drop-off to 4th and 5th, which is Bernie & Buttigieg. Bernie's position (~15% in polls with 100% name ID) is historically a losing one and the more you look under the surface (e.g. IA polls) the worse it gets. Buttigieg's coalition (white, college edu) may be too narrow. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 11, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The top tier is Biden, Harris and Warren. They're the ones who are both (i) polling fairly well right now and (ii) have the clearest path to maintain/expand their coalition. Warren's behind the other two in endorsements, so I have her a tick behind them overall, but not by much. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 11, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Candidates in the 3rd tier (Booker, Klob, Castro, Beto) might have more ability to build a broad coalition. But not sure there's any particular reason to think they'll get a surge. Booker & Castro had good debates but still overshadowed. Voters like the top 3-5 candidates a LOT. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 11, 2019 Hibernated