Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 4, 2020

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Tue May 28 02:57:31 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonfavs What do you think D turnout would have been if Obama was on the ballot in 2016 against Trump? I tend to think it would have been quite a bit higher than in 2012. (Clinton's D turnout in '16 was also >= Obama's in '12, although slightly lower if you adjust for population growth.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 28, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not sure that data tells a super clear story, and it doesn't adjust for population growth. But it is, at the very least, not obvious that Trump depressed Democratic turnout, which was reasonably high in 2016 by historical norms. (And **VERY** high in 2018, FWIW.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 28, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This can and does shift around, but Warren probably getting the most favorable media coverage right now. Maybe in part because she got rather negative coverage at/before launch and so didn't get a "surge" like most of the other leading candidates did at some point. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 28, 2019 Hibernated