Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 4, 2020

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Tue May 21 20:37:47 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

^^^ Whether you go to 2+ ballots, though easy to quantify, seems like the wrong metric. I can imagine highly contentious, uncertain conventions where nevertheless only 1 vote is taken, or perfunctory ones where the winner is ~certain but 2+ votes are taken for procedural reasons. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 21, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's what I think the definition *should* be, i.e. what would be most useful for journalists & other observers. A contested convention is one in which the identity of the nominee is in doubt when the convention begins (or unexpectedly comes into doubt during the convention). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 21, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbview I think 1976R is probably a yes, been reading a lot of NYT archived coverage and the conventional wisdom heading in was that the nomination was genuinely in doubt. 1980D is a closer call. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 21, 2019 Hibernated