Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 4, 2020

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Sat May 18 20:21:04 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's insane that people aren't able to learn the lesson that an election within a couple points in the polls could fairly easily go either way. — PolitiTweet.org

IDK, if I were looking at this chart I'd see a hard break toward conservatives in the closing weeks. I'd say Labor… https://t.co/tvxJDjvDXY

Posted May 18, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, these messages are no doubt poll-tested, and the dude is 20 points ahead of anyone else in the polls. I don't want to use that as a cudgel, but our priors ought to be pretty skeptical of "actually, Biden is out of touch with the mood of the Democratic electorate" takes. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1. The polling error was quite minor and the perception to the contrary mostly reflects the combination of the media's innumeracy and its cosmopolitan bias. 2. Prediction markets are dumb. — PolitiTweet.org

What is the best quick write-up on polling error in Australia & why the prediction markets were so off given the polling?

Posted May 19, 2019 Hibernated