Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 4, 2020

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Thu May 16 12:15:38 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Even a high-quality candidate would need 1 or 2 other things to go right to be a favorite in a red state like MT. Say, a damaged Republican opponent. Or a very favorable national environment, like Democrats had in 2018. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 16, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A very good candidate (someone like Bullock would probably qualify as an ex-governor) might be something like 6-8 points better than an average candidate. That's a lot but... still probably not enough in a state like Montana. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 16, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So if you're, say, Bullock or Beto or Abrams, you probably *do* have a chance *if* a *lot* of things go right. Whereas a generic Democrat wouldn't. But it's not a particularly good chance. You're gonna lose, I don't know, 4 out of 5 times or something. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 16, 2019 Hibernated