Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 15, 2020

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Thu May 02 20:02:04 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And under Democrats' current rules, if you don't get close to 50% of the *vote*, it's hard to get 50% of the first-ballot *delegates*, which means you go to a second ballot (at least nominally a contested convention!) where superdelegates can weigh in after all. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 2, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The key takeaway is there's a fairly strong (& intuitive) empirical relationship between how many candidates run, and how much of the vote the top candidate gets across all primaries and caucuses. In a fields this large, you probably wouldn't expect the top candidate to get 50%+. https://t.co/zJunTDyGs1 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 2, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ddayen The 15% thing helps at the margin but: 1) Different candidates will be helped/hurt by the threshold in different states/districts, which mitigates the effect. 2) It doesn't help much in a 3-4 way race where everyone has 20%+, which is the scenario I think Ds should worry about. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 2, 2019 Hibernated