Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 6, 2020

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Mon Apr 29 02:45:53 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende @davidshor Yeah I kinda think it's the latter. If you're a soft disapprover of Obama who was still gonna vote for him over Romney, you're probably going to say "approve" in November 2012 when you might not have in November 2011. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 29, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende @davidshor Job approval is definitely not a "fundamental", but the fundamentals models that don't use job approval as a crutch basically do no better than random: https://t.co/uzhRzj9s2F — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 29, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor Well it could suggest a lot of things including that the whole "economy drives presidential elections" hypothesis is at best about 30% true and about 70% p-hacked/overfit/poorly-specified models. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 29, 2019 Hibernated