Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 6, 2020

Created

Sun Apr 28 18:10:32 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trump won in 2016 despite being very unpopular (maybe more unpopular than now!) because (1) the Democrat was also really unpopular; (2) He overperformed in the Electoral College; (3) Voters who disliked both candidates tended to give him the benefit of the doubt. — PolitiTweet.org

His re-election chances are not “very low” even if he stays at 41% with adults https://t.co/3txoGRiD5k

Posted April 28, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@yashar @SopanDeb Do you often make the driver wait? Add or change destinations after you get in? Have a frequent pickoff or drop-off address that's hard to navigate to or that the GPS screws up? I'm guessing bad ratings have more to do with those things and less to do with politeness. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 28, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd think people would be better off spending more time thinking about the likelihood that conditions 1 thru 3 will repeat themselves and less time on all the "economy + incumbency" models, a lot of which are poorly designed and which aren't meant to be applied this early anyway. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 28, 2019 Hibernated