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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 19, 2019

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Fri Apr 19 23:12:16 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In general if you're dividing candidates into "can win" and "can't win" piles, you're doing it wrong. I don't think electability is some unknowable concept, but it's ambiguous and uncertain this early on. Maybe e.g. we're talking about the difference between a 40% chance vs. 60%. — PolitiTweet.org

ABC News Politics @ABCPolitics

Bernie Sanders can’t beat Donald Trump in 2020, former Obama campaign manager Jim Messina tells ABC News' @jonkarl:… https://t.co/DHzxq0ytVF

Posted April 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The path could easily be straight down—he's got big issues and I don't think any of the Democrats, including Biden, has more than like a 1-in-4 or 1-in-5 chance, so you're always smart to bet against any of them at even odds. But it'd be down from a much higher perch than Jeb. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A key part of this is that a 50-state, 20-candidate, 18-month-long presidential primary is hard to win and serves as a filtering process. e.g. if Bernie has the skills to win the primary, that tells us he's probably a competent (or better) general election candidate. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 19, 2019 Hibernated