Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 16, 2019

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Tue Apr 16 18:58:12 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias ...and what's *supposed* to happen is that the candidate who has the *broadest* appeal gains momentum in the early states with a nudge from party elites. I'm not sure Buttigieg is that candidate—I think it might be, say, Harris—although elites might prefer him to Bernie & Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 16, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias He's also not running against a candidate as formidable as Hillary, though. I don't know what happens if there are several candidates who each have their own "natural" constituency of 15-25% of the Democratic base, but that's a fairly common occurrence in the primary... — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 16, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It looks like our initial guess about Cousins was pretty decent, but maybe a pinch optimistic. We're now assuming he's out for sure for the next 3 weeks, but then has an outside chance to recover by the Finals. https://t.co/imY4xaw3Tq — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 16, 2019 Hibernated