Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 6, 2019

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Wed Mar 13 15:10:51 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 13, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ComfortablySmug @jackshafer The more relevant question is whether *you* count as a journalist, Smug, given that you basically published a Felicity-Huffman-did-the-right-thing thread earlier this AM. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 13, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's also a version of this that applies to the 2016 *general* election. Polls showed Clinton ahead, but in a close/uncertain race (i.e. Trump had a ~30% chance). The conventional wisdom thought Trump's chances were way lower and was wronger than polls. https://t.co/gDBFn2T51E — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 13, 2019 Hibernated