Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 6, 2019

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Mon Mar 11 19:11:17 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin The exchange where Yang is listed, Betfair, is not open to US customers. Our joke on the podcast all the people betting are teenagers in Scotland. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 11, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, I think this is pretty good evidence that prediction markets have biases, i.e. people conflating what they *want* to happen with what they think *will* happen. For the moment, Yang is a fairly…boutique candidate, whose audience overlaps heavily with these markets. — PolitiTweet.org

If I had to guess, this is because his platform (UBI, UBI, UBI) appeals to the kinds of techies more likely to bet… https://t.co/VHznKAaKSs

Posted March 11, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"The Producers", 2020 edition: 2019: Candidate launches a campaign based on memes and esoteric policies engineered to appeal to weirdos on political betting markets just so he can short himself on those markets and get rich. 2020: Oops somehow he became president. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 11, 2019 Hibernated