Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 6, 2019

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Mon Mar 11 15:51:00 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is probably the key chart. Name recognition certainly *does* matter. Overall, though, it's probably both the case that (i) Biden and Bernie aren't especially impressive frontrunners and (ii) None of the low-name-recognition candidates are off to an amazing start either. https://t.co/IEJKDfWuGA — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 11, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Forgot about this article I did 8 years ago but it's a pretty good read on the reliability of early primary polling. https://t.co/3FfUpfBR8r — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 11, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd note that this data comes from polls in July-December in the year before the election, i.e. 2-7 months before Iowa. It's even earlier now—11 months before—so the polls are even noisier. If Biden were to hold at ~30% through late this year, that would be a bit more formidable. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 11, 2019 Deleted Hibernated