Matthew Yglesias

@mattyglesias ↗

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Last Checked March 20, 2021

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Sat Feb 06 12:08:32 +0000 2021

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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Seriously, check out the CBO's track record of interest rate forecasts and think about this in @PTetlock terms. Macroeconomic predictions are really hard. But if you're wrong *in the same direction* every time you make a prediction, then you're obviously doing something wrong. https://t.co/6PDkuaYl50 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2021 Hibernated

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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

so much depends upon an output gap forecast that's clearly mistaken — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2021 Hibernated

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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

To their credit, these forecasts are admirably precise — much more specific than Famous Economists Doing Op-Eds — which means we can easily inspect them and assess whether this methodology works. But it really clearly does not work. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2021 Hibernated