Matthew Yglesias

@mattyglesias ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 24, 2020

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Tue Sep 01 13:34:25 +0000 2020

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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

But! Accurate polling is harder to do at the state level because the range of demographic factors you’d ideally like to weight for is more nuanced (Mormons in Arizona, churchgoing vs secular non-college whites in Maine, cuban vs Puerto Rican in Florida) and it’s just hard. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

National polls which *did* weight on educational attainment were highly accurate in 2016, so pollsters know how to account for “shyness.” You can actually check whether or not a pollster is using a sound methodology rather than speculating randomly. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

In national polls we’re lucky and the various micro-demographics tend to balance out & polls using basic weights are pretty accurate. It’s genuinely not clear this works in all states. In 2018, the national House generic ballot polling was a lot better than the senate polling. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated