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Tim Urban

@waitbutwhy ↗

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Last Checked April 3, 2023

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Fri Feb 10 21:24:51 +0000 2023

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Tim Urban @waitbutwhy

1/2. Do the experiment 200 times. You'd pick a blue ~100 times, and half of those times it would be from a blue/blue box. Put differently, of the 200 picks, 50 would be from BB boxes (50 blue picks), 100 from RB boxes (50B, 50R), 50 from RR boxes (50R). So the answer is 1/2. — PolitiTweet.org

Armando di Matteo (parody) @armando1987dim

@waitbutwhy There are 1000 boxes: 250 with two blue marbles in each, 250 with two blue marbles in each, and 500 wit… https://t.co/WafrcGNJIs

Posted Feb. 10, 2023

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Tim Urban @waitbutwhy

I see the reasoning for 1/3 (1/3 of all non-GG families are BB), but 1/2 seems correct. If you specified that the son was the older sib, possibilities narrow to BB/BG, so the answer is 1/2. Same if you specify he's the youngest (BB/GB). And he has to be either youngest or oldest. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 10, 2023

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Tim Urban @waitbutwhy

@BillyM2k fwiw, my friend is INSISTENT that I'm wrong — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 10, 2023