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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Look at presidential approval at this point in a first term since 1953 & every generic ballot at this point since 1937. A year out, a strong historic correlation on both metrics w/ what what they are in the midterms. History suggests GOP will roll in 2022 https://t.co/222DdhTNAB — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Every time I read something about the Mets, it's so clear how the most lopsided trade in MLB history was the Mets for the Dodgers and Giants. I mean holy cow. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NateSilver538 One day it will happen. One day, lol. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NateSilver538 This is why i carry around $5 bills and only $5 bills when I can. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@DeanLacy I had these two on my pod on DST. This article is accurate. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
My uncle @neilsedaka is one of Billboard's most successful pop stars ever. He wrote & sang 3 no. 1s without a team of writers—something that's become very rare. On the latest Margins of Error: How do we measure musical success in the TikTok/streaming era?https://t.co/gZnWiEODVw — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NoahCRothman That's a name. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@PatrickRuffini You know I haven't been regularly on Facebook since 2007... How many people use Twitter, but not Facebook? Gotta be a fraction. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel Mike Gallego — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I just received such a nice email. Made me feel happy... If you have the inclination to send a kind email or note or make a call to offer kind words, do it :). — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@aedwardslevy Solid tweet. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@nymetrowx Actual question: Is this snowfall forecast through April or just the meteorological winter (Dec - Feb)? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
It's 5:35 and pitch black. LOVE IT. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Honestly the worst loss for the Bills I can remember. No silver linings. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Tuesday was the latest example of why Republicans shouldn't fear high turnout. Massive swings in both races and... SIGNIFICANTLY higher turnout than four years ago. Also shows high turnout may continue, even without Trump in the WH. https://t.co/PALq7926k0 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@amyewalter This content is not good. ;) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@PollsterPatrick BINGO. The New York is a GREAT example. (The population of Nassau is HUGE.) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I know I sound like a broken record, but your diagnosis of what happened in Virginia really should take into account the current 13 point swing from 2020 in NJ. If it doesn't, it's missing plenty. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Hate changing the clocks? Well then do I have the podcast for you. A deep dive on why we can't seem to agree on keeping standard or daylight saving time all year around. My buddy @jonlovett joins in on the discussion. https://t.co/qw13KEhiTi — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Per the CDC, 80% of all adults have received at least one Covid dose. 70% have been fully vaccinated. Got some clowns out there claiming garbage, but MOST people aren't listening to the clowns. Thankfully. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The swing in NJ from 2020 was likely bigger than the swing in VA from 2020. Campaigns matter for sure, but any analysis of what happened Tuesday should probably acknowledge that fact. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@ForecasterEnten The one thing that is constant in all these races where the GOP overperformed 2020 is that Biden is unpopular. And Democrats trying to play up Trump are finding out that voters care about the man in charge (i.e. Biden) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Voters don't care about Donald Trump. They care about Joe Biden's unpopularity. VA is a good example: the 16% of Virginia voters who didn't like Biden or Trump, Youngkin won by better than 2 to 1. This was a key bloc that put Youngkin over the edge. https://t.co/mKCEsn16A0 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Here were the final polls in NJ (all Murphy leads): +6, +4, +8, +9, +9, +11, +4. Avg of 7.3. My guess is at the end of the day, we're probably heading toward a 5 point miss. 30% of all gov races had final polling averages miss by at least 5 points from 1998 to 2020. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
From what I can tell, the GOP won the House of Delegates vote statewide at this point 51.8% to 47.3% in VA. GOP just flat out won statewide in VA, no matter what way you look at it. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@LoganDobson Along with Emerson (when undecided are allocated). Trafalgar was better in VA. But Emerson was on fire in Boston/Buffalo mayor. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Emerson College polling at this point off by 3 points or less in Boston Mayor, Buffalo Mayor, New Jersey Governor, and Virginia Governor. Woof. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
My latest Margins of Error episode covers this exact topic (with Nate as the guest): How drawn out counts (rightly or wrongly) seem to be correlated with distrust in the electoral system. https://t.co/395OOt2vWO https://t.co/u2PJLphsVH — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
It is extremely difficult for me to understand how states/localities can still proceed with multi-day election coun… https://t.co/IatJhFumqr
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Trump didn't change the equation. Yes, he changed the coalitions to a degree, but not the equation. Swing voters matter. Midterm penalties are still a thing. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Look at what's outstanding in NJ. Closer than we thought, but it's a lot in D territory out... and i'd bet plenty of it is mail. — PolitiTweet.org
