Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Surprise: voters haven't really changed their minds since 28 days ago. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wayne Co.: Walker +58.3 in November, Walker +57.9 today. Keep in mind, Walker (R) would need to be doing about a point better on the margin vs. November overall to win, so another decent rural result for Warnock (D). #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wilkes Co.: Walker +17.5 in November, Walker +16.1 today. A good result for Warnock (D). #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'm not convinced Lowndes Co. (Valdosta) is entirely in as several outlets appear to indicate, but if it is it's decent news for Warnock (D). Walker +18.4 in November, Walker +17.0 so far tonight. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, easy to cherrypick encouraging signs for either side in rural Georgia. On balance, it's tracking w/ November, which is decent news for Warnock (D). Biggest remaining question is turnout in urban Georgia, and it could take a while to find out. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Franklin Co.: Walker +71.3 in November, Walker +73.1 tonight. A strong result for Walker (R) in the rural north. #GASEN. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

McDuffie Co.: Walker +23.7 in November, Walker +22.4 tonight. Perhaps the most encouraging result for Warnock in a complete rural county so far. #GASEN. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is going to be a close runoff result, perhaps closer than the Warnock +3 rough polling consensus. But you'd still much rather be Warnock (D) than Walker (R) right now. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First majority Black county appears complete: Warren. Warnock (D) wins it by 5.1%, same exact margin as November. Turnout is 95% of November votes cast, about same as complete super-red counties. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First Black majority appears complete: Warren. Warnock (D) wins it by 5.1%, same exact margin as November. Turnout is 95% of November votes cast, about same as complete super-red counties. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A good result for Warnock (D) in Ben Hill Co.: Walker (R) carried it by 28.9% in November, wins it by just 27.5% today. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A better sign for Warnock (D) in another super-red county: Pierce. Walker (R) carried it by 77.4% in November, wins it by 77.0% today. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Deleted a previous tweet b/c misstated November's Brantley Co. margin. Walker (R) carried it by 82.1% in November, wins 83.0% today. Not a bad result for Walker, but still early and one of the reddest counties in the state. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Brantley Co.: Walker (R) carried it by 83.4% in November, carries it by 83.0% tonight. So far, results don't show bottom falling out for Walker, but you'd still rather be Warnock (D). #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First complete county, perhaps: rural Washington, one of two that Warnock (D) carried in 2021 but Walker (R) carried in November. Walker carried it by 1.4% in November, carries it by 2.1% today. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, the only nearly complete county (Brantley) is tracking about the same as in the initial round. Walker (R) won it by 83% the first time, winning it by 82% now. But, still votes left to count there. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Who wants to be the first complete county? #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'll also be closely monitoring some of the medium-size counties where Warnock's margin fell by 5 pts+ between Jan '21 and Nov '22, mostly b/c of weaker nonwhite turnout: 1. Coffee (-6) 2. Lowndes (-6) 3. Tift (-5) 4. Hart (-5) 5. Laurens (-5) 6. Baldwin (-5) 7. Whitfield (-5) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tonight, I'll be closely monitoring the turnout in the five large GA counties where total votes cast fell the most between Jan '21 and Nov '22 b/c of weaker nonwhite turnout: 1. Gwinnett (-19%) 2. Clayton (-18%) 3. Richmond (-17%) 4. Muscogee (-17%) 5. Dougherty (-17%) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Repeat after me https://t.co/6XBhx2ss9p — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Reminder: a big reason Dems have been able to crack Georgia is it's now a really urban state. Metro ATL alone made up 59% of GA's vote on 11/8. By contrast, Dems continue to struggle in NC, where the Charlotte/Research Triangle metros combined for just 42% of the state's vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yep. And at this point if you told me it were outside of the Warnock 2-4 range I might take the higher side. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@databyler Agree with the conclusion, but a small fix: AZ SOS has had #AZ09 Gosar (R) at almost 193k votes for a few weeks, and we've included those in our tracker. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tale of two Houses: of the 173 districts drawn by Republicans, just *two* (1.2%) were decided by <5% either way in November - less than a tenth of the competitiveness rate of the other 262 districts. https://t.co/pxoDrmanii https://t.co/YlHpA2611M — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW @CookPolitical: my five biggest takeaways from 2022's photo finish in the House (featuring a lot of cool charts by @MattKleinCPR). https://t.co/pxoDrmswwq https://t.co/sFJvJ6ehZ3 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And…vice chair goes to California Rep. Ted Lieu (D). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @nicholaswu12: NEW - in recent days, several frontliners have raised the idea to Jeffries and the leadership team of appointing an outsi… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: This midterm was unusual, but not unprecedented. Most prominent continuing trend: partisan consolidation. At both federal &… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: the U.S. just surpassed 107 million House votes counted, per @CookPolitical's tracker. Republicans' lead is down to 3.0%. https://t.co/YOAzUtsM9F https://t.co/Tx4oU8wEGs — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @RepMcEachin: https://t.co/ev2jRb5Gwr — PolitiTweet.org