Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 the central point of the article is that there is great variance among nonprob, not that they're all the same. that variance appears to be a function of their unifying trait -- no single sample frame --> crazy different samples -- which makes it appropriate to treat it together — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 my vague read of the room is that pollsters are more pesmisitic than they were when i wrote this, which i think is still my basic position here https://t.co/2h6LU3CXyN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 i don't think it's misleading. almost everyone i talk to thinks there's real daylight between nonprob panels and online prob/phones. that's my independent read as well. i think what i wrote is consensus: nonprob can solid, but it's hard, can be terrible and it's hard to evaluate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 yeah, i mean, that's the 'subjective classification' option. i don't think it's an option for me to make that kind of characterization without in-depth explanation, let alone on a chart — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 and unfortunately, i don't think we have anywhere near the level disclosure / understanding of best practices to be able to distinguish which nonprob polls are in which category -- which is part of why the spread in trump support has the potential to be so revelatory — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 in the interim, i think it remains entirely true that probability polls by rigorous firms weighted by standard demographics = presumptively pretty decent, while the same cannot be said for the nonprob polls (which can be good with great effort or absolute trash) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 if you have a better way to show 'good' v. 'bad' polls on a chart like this, other than my subjective characterizations (which would call, say, YouGov Good but might call Suffolk BAD), I'm all ears — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Is Trump way up or way down? The polls are extraordinarily split, but the higher-quality surveys suggest he might be pretty weak. https://t.co/3ABGKid5VU https://t.co/ChO0jv7Gzc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier that's not really how it works. i haven't done the analysis yet, but i fear the likelier explanation is that the sample was indeed deeply problematic and we were lucky that turnout and nonresponse biases largely cancelled out — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @LoganDobson: pro bowl punting from Mitch at least — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Do you regularly use chatGPT or another AI tool for work? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@aaronstrauss @MichaelPodhorz2 yeah, absolutely. it's hard to turn this into a MAGA dummy. but clearly there were a series of competitive states where trump tried to overturn the last election and where MAGA types were running to do it for real, and dems did well in those states — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@aaronstrauss @MichaelPodhorz2 i do think national media discussion of crime (portland v. denver) could be the/a missing variable in the blue states where MAGA obviously wasn't at stake. but hard to model state effects on n=50 so i'm willing to accept an imperfect explanation — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@aaronstrauss @MichaelPodhorz2 i think there are very clear state effects downballot; i think they are loosely correlated with democracy/MAGA but it's not perfect (CO v. OR being an example) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile didn't look at age — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We still don't have data from Pennsylvania, where I am interested to see whether we might get a different story. After that, the final/next question is whether there is a different story at the individual-level, perhaps due to educational polarization or something else — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We now have final turnout data for all of the jurisdictions with historic turnout data by party going back to at least 2004: NC, IA, LA, KY, Clark (NV), Pinellas (FL). Overall, the GOP enjoyed a turnout edge much like recent GOP midterms, with ~ R+5 electorate v. RVs https://t.co/ARZKpnukEl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Neil_Irwin: In the final three months of 2022, core inflation was running at a 3.1% annual rate, which is a little on the hot side but… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot and has anyone ever been disqualified for nondisclosure of funding? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot (or nondisclosure of funding) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot but no one is newly disqualified under it, i assume? is there a case where a pollster has been disqualified for nontransparency on weighting/mode/voter file source ( as opposed to non-methodological questions like release dates/call center location/sample size, etc) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot are any prominent firms newly disqualified under this 'basic questions' standard? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Neil_Irwin: This is a really terrific jobs report in lots of subtle ways. Job growth is soft-landingish. Labor supply looks to be ris… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject like, if you were out there saying the early voting showed kelly winning by 5 in AZ, that would definitely be better than the poll average but no early voting-based analysis would have shown that (we did end with an r+9 electorate there) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject behind paywall so can't read, but i don't doubt that it proved to be fairly accurate -- the polls were extremely accurate, after all. but in part as a result, i'm not really sure i follow what you think the early voting showed that was different — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject behind paywall so can't read, but i don't doubt that it proved to be fairly accurate -- the polls were extremely accurate, after all. but in part as a result, i'm not really sure how the early voting offered a different take — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject i'm still don't understand the position that the early voting was good for democrats? the GOP enjoyed a pretty clear turnout advantage in all of the major states with the best partisan early voting data (and won the house vote in all of those states) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Republicans enjoyed a superior turnout this fall, based on authoritative data on turnout by party from NC, AZ, GA, NV, NY and FL, but lost high-profile races because of defections from Republican-leaning voters https://t.co/fFYmIuzOOg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende (not snark) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende am i missing a good debate? — PolitiTweet.org