Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Michigan is one of those states where the Democrats have a pretty serious 'geography' problem. Without explicit partisan fairness criteria, something more-or-less like this was probably the likeliest outcome here, though obviously it will disappoint Dems — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(this only holds for the final recall polling average, to be competitive. there was no point where the CA-GOV race appeared to be competitive in '18) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @OsitaNwanevu as i read some of the other responses to your post, i wonder whether understanding this historical comparison might actually interest you, btw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@simon_bazelon @davidshor @jbouie @EricLevitz @HeerJeet @chrislhayes @mattyglesias not back to 2012 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @RyanDEnos: This is an important paper and I think academics and journalists should read it. The stakes of political violence are high… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin @pollhannes i didn't/don't disagree with that, so maybe to reframe in a way that more clearly clashes with your point: you're supposing that policy views are the DV, and i'm saying that whether you can appeal to someone *with* policy views — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @richardmskinner: It’s really striking how many journalists have moved into open advocacy over the past few days. https://t.co/kfH1vIXbKD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach @jon_m_rob @hill_charlotte and as long as the debate about the effect of suppression focuses on the mitigating of mobilization/backlash (which I see as mainly coming from Biden admin, not Charlotte), there won't be as much thought about the magnitude of the burden on voters, which is taken as a given — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach it's also plausible to me bc so many states, not just GA, have used the decline in in-person early voting to rationalize fewer voting centers and precinct consolidation (hence why i went there from the harris ex) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach at worst, i think these states manage to get away with providing multiple mediocre options while maintaining the appearance of easy access. at best, i think maintaining so many good-not-great voting models is part of the problem by stretching burdens on both voters and admin — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kkondik @PoliticsWolf distinct chance that Michigan GOP would have done better on this iteration on the Wolf map, for ex https://t.co/npEX0GLuVy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@yesh222 @de79dc lol that's not the counterfactual at all — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NYTnickc: It also includes two provisions Democrats in the House had been seeking: *a provision for some form of ballot curing *remov… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin @jon_m_rob to that point, only 33 percent of Trump supporters rate blacks equally to whites or better, but only 81% give blacks a score over 50% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(it's worth noting that this means Adams did better in absentee votes than in-person, after controlling for the geographic distribution of those ballots, which is somewhat surprising) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Adams still leads by 1 percentage point after another 118k ballots are counted Garcia only won the new ballots by just 1 percentage point, barely better at all than her performance among in-person voters https://t.co/hBNtZIvpH6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(and since a few people asked, this was an earnest question. i can understand the case for favoring either garcia or adams, but i am surprised that there was such a large swing. i was wondering, as i said, whether there was a reason to explain the swing) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @persily: Brnovich was as expected; 3 things stood out: 1 Voting practices existing in 1982 deserve some special presumption of validity… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Neither does the NYC Board of Elections https://t.co/q0hLsvPX9g — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: @IChotiner Whenever I feel bad about how our 2020 House forecast fared, I remind myself that this wasn't our forecast (actu… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias @rickhasen and like the GOP base in the 2015 repeal and replace push, activists and progressives are just not in on the HR1 joke. but in a way it's worse this time, because there weren't really plausible, credible, desirable 'skinny repeal' options for the base — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@elkmovie it'll count either way. but if you're an anyone-but-adams voter, then it might not make sense to vote for a candidate who would be likeliest to lose to adams (whoever that might be), even if that candidate's your preferred choice — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @lpolgreen: She Was a Black Election Official in Georgia. Then Came New G.O.P. Rules. - The New York Times https://t.co/NxADA0Pnf5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

this is a truly incredible maphttps://twitter.com/504Tman/status/1405518071088005125?s=20 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes in the end the democrats will need to figure out a way through the GOP, whether through gutting the filibuster or 10 votes. that's always true. but what is *really unusual* about a purportedly urgent effort is that the democrats haven't actually gotten to the obstacle yet — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It'll be interesting to see the full set of information, but it will be very interesting to see how progressives react to this kind of grand bargain-ish package: trade voter ID for an end to gerrymandering, without doing much on the 'voter suppression' front — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On the other side, I totally disagree that it's 'politically southern.' It's voting patterns are much more reminiscent of the northern industrial/resource extraction zone of PA/eastern OH. It didn't vote D until 1932. It didn't swing R in 48 or after. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jbarro: There is a way a legislative effort looks when it’s intended to result in an enacted law. Like the effort behind the ACA or the… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@stevemorris__ the gop thinks the election is stolen is the reason a deal could be possible — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So while Manchin-ology is that would get Manchin to even *think* about ditching the filibuster and a bill that might attract limited Republican support probably have a lot of the same characteristics. That's not the way most progressives seem to imagine it, based on my replies — PolitiTweet.org