Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite @PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @davidshor @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI And NC does have free longitudinal vote history and registration — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite @PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @davidshor @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI no, not free by that standard. But there’s a lot that’s accessible and I’ve basically seen no one tap into it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @xenocryptsite @davidshor @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI not sarcastic — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @xenocryptsite @davidshor @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI and this is a national phenomenon, btw. we’ve been sitting on this for a while, pending a little more survey data — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite @PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @davidshor @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI NC is free! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @xenocryptsite @davidshor @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI congrats on being the first person on election Twitter to discover the voter file — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw idk, i'd guess there are pretty considerable advantages to the more unified party, given ballot exhaustion / the lost opportunity for post-primary intraparty coalition building, and that probably means an advantage for democrats right now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias this kind of disparity is most easily explained by the sample frame -- perhaps especially on the cheap/non-yougov online nonprob panels -- not response rates — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This actually represents a pretty meaningful improvement for Trump since the last Monmouth poll, and yet it's still like 20 points worse for him than some other recent polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trump and DeSantis each at 33% in Monmouth, with DeSantis up 53-40 on the named one-on-one ballot. I can't remember a time when there's been such a wide range of results on such a high-profile topic https://t.co/faq9mJC46t — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite a little — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite turns out the GOP still has a turnout edge among seniors in the special; it's the younger groups where dems build their edge. the edge grows as you head lower in age, where the dem turnout rate among 18-29 is nearly 2.5x gop (admittedly off very low rates) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now I didn't show you this in the quiz, but this here is really the telling sat: the special is a rare election with a Dem turnout edge This kind of shift in partisan differential turnout is the tip of the iceberg and betrays deeper advantages https://t.co/26zk7WJBtH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite well it implies good turnout among democrats, period. in the special, 35% of dems vote v. 32% of reps; in the general, 60% of dems vote v 65% of reps — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, in NE-1: 'A' yielded R+16 in the midterm congressional election 'B' yielded R+6 in the special election with the same candidates So the correct answer would seem to be D -- `A` was much more Republican than B — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Replying to @Nate_Cohn Well, in NE-1 'A' yielded R+16 in the midterm congressional election 'B' yielded R+6 in the special election with the same candidates So the correct answer would seem to be D -- `A` was much more Republican than B — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, in NE-1 'A' yielded R+16 in the midterm congressional election 'B' yielded R+6 in the special election with the same candidates So the correct answer would seem to be D -- `B` was much better for Democrats — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, in NE-1 'A' yielded R+16 in the midterm congressional election 'B' yielded R+6 in the special election with the same candidates So the right answer while it's possible there are other effects, the correct answer would seem to be D -- `B` was much better for Democrats — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Composition of electorate, not turnout rate by group https://t.co/UVlh6orgbn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Do you think turnout A or turnout B is better for Democrats or Republicans? (redoing question bc i'm bad at this) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Do you think turnout A or turnout B is better for Democrats or Republicans? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Do you think turnout A or turnout B is better for Democrats or Republicans? (poll below) https://t.co/GT3vlmmy6j — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This leaves one major turnout question: did the Democrats enjoy a turnout advantage at the individual-level, perhaps due to higher turnout among well-educated voters? We're still aways from digging into that question — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The story in Pennsylvania is about the same. D+1.6 electorate (45.5-43.9) v. D+5.4 registration, thanks to 65% turnout among Democrats and 71% among Republicans on the L2 file — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MarinersVintage: Nike (1996) Griffey in ‘96 campaign https://t.co/kjXZTm6DII — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob i didn't want to start a fight over whether RBS was prob lol — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob marquette/SSRS is prob internet. marist now has online panel/multi-modal stuff — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob though the prob stuff is mainly online now too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 now, to your earlier thought -- yes, at the NYT it is *much* easier for me to apply an objective classification (prob/nonprb) with a very defensible analytical lens than for me (NYT) to declare polls good/bad subjectively and get into countless fights to defend it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 i guess that would depend on your subjective gradations, so idk where we disagree, but on my subjective gradiations the story is basically the same whether it's a categorical or continuous scale — PolitiTweet.org