Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @NickRiccardi @EricLevitz @BenjySarlin (and the GOP's tendency to elevate those same issues could also bias our perceptions of how often certain sides win out) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ragipsoylu: BREAKING — NATO to provide air defense systems to Ukraine and more weapons — Stoltenberg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This has been true for decades, and also probably less true than it's ever been https://t.co/dR7pINTsjf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Polls show signs that the public's resolve to fight the coronavirus is waning, with the balance of recent surveys showing the desire to return to normalcy rising to match or exceed support for COVOID restrictions https://t.co/mjcakshCL5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mjs_DC: BREAKING: By a 5–4 vote, with Roberts joining the liberals in dissent, the Supreme Court halts a lower court order that require… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @EricLevitz @MattBruenig there is something deeper here than simply whether democrats support expert decision-making--it's whether you can construe modern liberalism as a democratizing force that empowers 'the people' to have more control over their lives at the expense of the elite — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict i'm a little surprised you think they would split pittsburgh/no district wholly in allegheny. it seems like a pretty big step further in pursuit of partisan balance than last time, though admittedly the process is quite different — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One could argue that 7% inflation is more jarring today than it was in those prior instances, when baseline inflation was slightly higher. But I do think it's reasonable to argue there's more than the financial pain of inflation with this basic pattern — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @RyanDEnos: The pushback on journalists for "bothsidesing" was probably a healthy correction - but maybe can go too far so that we don't… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ProfGuyCharles @rickhasen @ElectProject though iirc Rucho seemed to imply the court thought the guarantee clause might be a/the appropriate remedy, it's just not judicable (as congress would be the one to enforce it) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This has created all kinds of oddities about this process, like the head blaming the tail for not knowing how to get to where it needs to go--even though it doesn't have a brain or eyes, and the tail blaming the head for not knowing either, even though it's the one wagging — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Politically, this post-Delta COVID muddle has obviously been a disaster for Democrats, regardless of whether it was the right policy option or not. Omicron has made it truly unsustainable — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw i'm using the numbers on the main table for 'predicted vote share.' i think you're right that the issue might have to do with how you've specified incumbency in the model, but it's a pretty serious problem if it doesn't model open seats well (esp if that's default)? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So I'm very agnostic about whether voters, today, are 'wrong' about the economy today--whether their perceptions of the economy are very different than what we ought to expect given the facts. I just don't know. This is obviously a highly unusual moment, coming out of COVID etc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, it's worth noting that we had several months where the economic numbers undershot reality and required a significant upward correction. It's possible the perception-reality has its basis in biased coverage, but stemming from biased data not biased journalism — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And leaving personal stuff aside, the Democrats are a real left-liberal coalition at the moment and the liberals intend to run it. They do need to be accomodating — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One manifestation of it--obvious on this website, but throughout the Democratic primary--is that liberals constantly argue against the left on electability grounds, as if they agree with the left on the substance of the issue as well — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a tactical matter, what's the reason why this stuff is in a once-in-a-decade reconciliation bill as opposed to, say, the annual budget (let alone state or local options) https://t.co/vXu2fLU2TV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A random thought from mixing-and-matching graphics: For the unvaccinated, the COVID case level on average across America is a dark red color on the NYT covid case map For the vaccinated, it's the lightest yellow color https://t.co/1SDPLaigPf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker is such a great product this cycle https://t.co/a2HyaRFEA0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende do you have VBM by precinct here? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, the needle would be pointing to the right if it were on the internet . — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Or put differently, I'm not drawing attention to the trajectory point to make a prediction, but instead to note that I think it's a valid argument in this case when I don't usually think it is one — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Though to be fair, Democrats have gotten some won some nail-biters too https://t.co/EsJlZVwucC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Realistically, I do think there would be a need to explicitly push back against the left. I don't think that would need to be a Sister Souljah moment, unless you think the aforementioned free speech example from Obama counts (I don't) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @jonathanchait @mattyglesias @BenjySarlin @SeanMcElwee i think if you buy the shor means-testing thing, then you may have more work to do than you many have supposed. it betrays a fundamentally liberal, not social democratic, vision of welfare state responsibilities. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MattGrossmann it's all very hard to remember now, but there was a lot of affluent white revulsion against bailouts, aca, etc. i remember meeting georgetown college freshman back in '09 who referenced 'state co.', as an off hand reference to tarp/aca/bailouts etc. one's a dem operative now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @RyanDEnos: Summary of my reaction to the last week on my twitter-feed: the way in which @davidshor has become the prototype of a conser… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And while the poll is two years old... there's a chance it was the last major set of unbiased polling in the race. A lot of what was in this serious is probably still quite relevant, IMO https://t.co/X9blPajNiN https://t.co/gLb8uOFYWa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The map, to my mind, is almost exactly what you would expect if you ignored partisanship altogether. That's not the same as a gerrymander, of course. But it does not reflect much of an effort to achieve partisan fairness, even if that's very difficult to pull off in Michigan — PolitiTweet.org