Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

DeSantis, on Defense, Shows Signs of Slipping in Polls https://t.co/pgFDk82B9d https://t.co/RbWLUqOGaa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile 'warren would have won except for nyt poll' is the ultimate twitter is not real life take — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

CNN/SSRS shows Trump 40, DeSantis 36 in a multi-candidate race. This is the latest edition of the rough but fairly consistent 'good polls are good for DeSantis' pattern we've seen so far this cycle https://t.co/WMaWPvOaN3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

CNN/SSRS shows Trump 40, DeSantis 36 in a multi-candidate race. This is the latest edition of the rough but fairly consistent 'good polls for DeSantis' pattern we've seen so far this cycle https://t.co/cY3rg5y5fe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

folks, there is basically a golden tablet -- indeed their own standard, as announced on air that night, was 99.9 https://t.co/d4FKK55chX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Why Fox’s Call on Arizona, Which Was Right, Was Still Wrong https://t.co/riaGg8QdAb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PhysDAnthony even in 16/20 -- where everyone did badly -- you wouldn't have been any worse off to make an nyt/siena poll your final prediction rather than to take the average of all polls (including nyt/siena) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

that said, the old maxim that you should 'trust the average' over a single high-quality poll has gotten worse; going forward, there's an increasingly strong basis to give more weight to outlying NYT/Siena polls than i would have said/thought before — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

that said, the old maxim that you should 'trust the average' over a single high-quality poll has gotten worse; going forward, there's an increasingly strong basis to give more weight to outlying NYT/Siena poll seriously than i would have said/thought before — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

lol I will continue to 'cast doubt' on our numbers, not because of whether they show results 'i want' but because polling is inherently imprecise, faces countless new challenges, and no one knows whether we're geniuses or morons until election night https://t.co/E7X9eopZQ8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

By my count, the Times/Siena polling this cycle was the most accurate for any pollster with >10 polls in the FiveThirtyEight dataset going back to 1998. Pretty amazing given all of the challenges in polling today — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

"Siena College/The New York Times Upshot already had an A+ grade, so it didn’t get a ratings boost. Still, its stellar performance did push it past Selzer & Co. for the distinction of most accurate pollster in America" https://t.co/2Ik4iK98dF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbarro mishkin spoke extensively on air on election night; it is clear they had no understanding of what was going on — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A few signs of movement toward Trump, pollster-to-pollster, over the last month or so https://t.co/pPnJS1EVXf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes what was the mean turnout score and validated turnout by party — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes i haven't charted our scores like this, but i don't think we would have anything like this kind of disparity based on the marginal distributions of our party reg targets v. validated electorate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes in lieu of anything else, that's how i've always approached the question as well. and at least with my scores, the turnout was mostly consistent with expectations. and by means of times/siena polls, we oddly do publish more of this than most! but it's still an impossible convo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes the most frustrating thing about this -- and technically your tweet falls into this, though i agree with your overall point -- is that no one sets ex ante turnout expectations in a falsifiable way — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@KSoltisAnderson @SeanTrende Alright I take what I said back after being reminded of options: thin blue line and don’t tread on me were more common than Ukraine (though we may have only seen one confederate flag if any) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende Idk we drove from DC to Canada recently and saw a striking number of Ukrainian flags, well beyond the beltway. Obviously a small proportion of households but it had to be third most common political symbol after the US flag and trump signs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Believe it or not, early primary polling is pretty indicative of the eventual result of the presidential primaries. The implication: this primary campaign is already halfway over https://t.co/oeMINooAa8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My favorite part about this graph is that the simple linear regression has an intercept of 0 and the coefficient is 1 (r^2 is .47 or something, hence my 'halftime' expression, but still) https://t.co/mlQEXQusBa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

tbh, going to be more like D+50 or more once the Richmond early/absentee vote arrives. A big overperformance. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of note: nearly half of voters in this district are Black, and it's been a while since Democrats have overperformed in such a diverse district — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Democrats are putting up an impressive showing in VA-4, the first special congressional election of the cycle. By our estimates, the Democrat is on track to win by 45 points, compared to 30 points in '22 and 36 points in '20 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @xenocryptsite @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI the local max for dem support controlling for race is in the low thirties at this point. when you were concerned about this 8 years ago it was ...8 years younger. the 18-20 year old drop-off is all differential registration, but the long term phenomenon is probably real — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @xenocryptsite @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI indeed - i remember your panic about it at the time. but i don't think is just about the lower 20s anymore — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ChrisatPTS @PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @xenocryptsite @davidshor @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI also apparently rewarded by the Elon “for me” algorithm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ChrisatPTS @PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @xenocryptsite @davidshor @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI It’s the truth. Maps + making stuff up gets a lot of RTs tho — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticalKiwi @xenocryptsite @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @davidshor @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI depends on what you want to use the data for and whether you feel you need the full file, but I think there are useful products that often don’t require coding knowledge in SC, NV, IA, KY, OH and probably elsewhere that I’m forgetting off hand — PolitiTweet.org