Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another problem: since the race has already been trending rapidly toward Trump, many polls may show him making gain… https://t.co/42w7jwmG0X — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In particular, there's a group of prolific online nonprobability polls (HarrisX, Morning Consult, Premise, TIPP, et… https://t.co/NQS0U9VAYc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This cycle, pollsters have split in extremely unusual ways about both the state of the Republican race and the broa… https://t.co/MjLS8BkrPP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We'll undoubtedly start to get some post-indictment GOP polling over the next few days. My preemptive plea: please… https://t.co/jZXJTz3cKu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@The_RickMc that's fair; probably the wrong example. i started down the mental road of 'things after running a regr… https://t.co/lLzpacqlRD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@The_RickMc these are all logit models with survey data, but there are related challenges for linear models (the la… https://t.co/RElGseXhvb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are papers out there saying elections are about 'x' bc of a statistically significant coefficient but if you… https://t.co/0L3itGNIz5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The relevant takeaway -- that regression coefficients aren't necessarily the most important thing, computing margin… https://t.co/OMFuZIKEe8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's interesting to see a group of political scientists trying to adopt the methods of election analysts or 'data j… https://t.co/2JQwvQ42mg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's still comical disagreement among pollsters about the state of the Republican race -- with serious pollsters… https://t.co/G3tFL0eqax — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JacobRubashkin don't forget hillary clinton — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

endorse https://t.co/imdVKIRV3J — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I've gotten more substantive email feedback to this piece than any I've written for my newsletter (which you should… https://t.co/f891j9pVdc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What's "woke" and why it matters for the Republican primary, even if it's hard to define https://t.co/MaTausEy4y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @cinyc9 gotta go to purrr/map family — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Monmouth shows Trump continuing to gain in the presidential primary, with Trump up 41-27. This is longest-long-term… https://t.co/bpggRkRXWE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Bottom-line: I don't believe there's anything like an authoritative measure of electoral trends, if there ever was.… https://t.co/taKZH7SO69 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There is dissenting survey data that seems consistent with the big shift but it has issues. AP/Votecast has no pre-… https://t.co/eFrosOXDAZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To be blunt, I see no reason to believe this, given the hard results, the fact that these surveys seriously overest… https://t.co/Mbn2U62tCJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This plays out most obviously with Hispanic voters, who--based on the geography of hard election results--appear to… https://t.co/V2VeJt1ZXF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are two main reasons: -- Changing methodology has undermined comparability of data across time, even from the… https://t.co/vijMJvtCyy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I've seen two articles on recent electoral trends this week. Both worth reading, but I'd like to add a sidebar: Ou… https://t.co/NnxZ6LwqCm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini i think the panel data is pretty compelling here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

FWIW: two Times/Siena national polls pre-election showed Trump ahead 54-22 among non-whites (n=137) v. 48-26 among whites — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not much sample here, but an interesting possibility from @ForecasterEnten https://t.co/lNctDt91io — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JoshKraushaar the polling is so insane that i think you basically can only look at trends based on direct apples-t… https://t.co/soF3fdVfIL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JoshKraushaar i think this is more of an example of emerson being on a different planet than other pollsters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @Wertwhile to the extent the poll hit, it did so because her supporters already feared and probably knew it was true — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The trend also seems to be continuing in the most recent polls. Quinnipiac, for ex, shows Trump picking up a net-12… https://t.co/vADemZGAoy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This chart compares polls from the same pollster, before and after 1/15. I wouldn't read much into the average (the… https://t.co/RZD57QnWj7 — PolitiTweet.org