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Michael McFaul @McFaul
So Cal sunset. https://t.co/zDLPAd2yIG — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
Terrific thread by @ProfPaulPoast on both Jervis and IR theory more generally. — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Poast @ProfPaulPoast
To understand international politics, you need to "think about thinking." That was a core lesson from the great Bo… https://t.co/umERpZeRsn
Michael McFaul @McFaul
RT @carlbildt: Putin 🇷🇺 has consistently misjudged and mishandled his 🇺🇦 policy, turning the country from a friendly and close neighbor to… — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
I’m not an expert. Have not studied systemically over 200+ years of US history . But in my opinion, American intentions also are not fixed, and most certainly are not always benign. — PolitiTweet.org
Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim
I agree that the Russian government's stance toward NATO has contained some variations over the past three decades.… https://t.co/HIfB9Pppq5
Michael McFaul @McFaul
@stephenwertheim Interesting. Worth a long conversation someday (but on this platform) — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
@DAlperovitch Crimean Tatars? (But seriously, fair question) — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
These domestic-level variables inside Russia & Ukraine -- not changes in BOP, not NATO policy, not US policy (Obama was president the whole time) drove changes in Russia's threat perception about NATO constructed by Putin. Power matters in IR. Domestic politics matter too. 8/ END — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
In 2011, Putin announced he was seeking a 3rd term. In 2011, massive demonstrations erupted inside Russia (and Arab world). In 2013, new massive demonstrations erupted in Ukraine. In 2014, Yanukovich fled Ukraine. In 2014, Putin annexed Crimea & supported separatists. 7/ — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
So what changed between 2010 and 2014? Did NATO become stronger? No. Did NATO try to bring Ukraine in? No. Was the US more threatening to Russia? No. Rather, things changed inside Russia and Ukraine. In other words, you have to bring domestic politics into the story. 6/ — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
In 2014, Russia reverted back to talking about NATO expansion as a threat. For 5 years, 2009-2014, NATO expansion was almost never discussed between US and Russian leaders. (NB, I worked for Obama between 2009-2014 & attended almost all of these mtgs) 5/ — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
These "cases" of intense cooperation between Russia-US-NATO occurred after NATO expansion. (You cant explain cases of cooperation and confrontation cited the same independent variable) 4/ — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
In 2011, "Russia" abstained on UN Security Resolutions 1970 & 1973, authorizing the use of force against Libya by NATO countries. Russia could have vetoed these resolutions and stopped NATO countries, but did not. It was a major cooperative moment between Russia-US-NATO. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
At the NATO summit in 2010, "Russia" presented a grand proposal for missile defense cooperation, not exactly something you normally do with enemies. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
In 2010, "Russia" attended the NATO summit in Lisbon and called the friendly meeting "historic in terms of its spirit and atmosphere.." 1/ THREAD — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
All future talks of European security desires by Putin must include Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Crimea and Northern Cypress. — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
Майкл Макфол о том, почему не будет войны между Россией и Украиной https://t.co/crjPlwkFhn via @YouTube — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
Sorry for typos. Ill delete and clean up. — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
You are expressing a realist IR theory (not a fat). have a different theory, which brings in leaders and regimes. I… https://t.co/rbH5MyHxoM
Michael McFaul @McFaul
States dont have views. People do. Some Russian leaders have defined threats differently than others. The "NATO threat" is constructed; it comes & goes in Russian politics. (The same is true w/ US leaders. Obama did not view the "Iraqi threat" the same way as Bush in 2003.) — PolitiTweet.org
Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim
This is not how international politics works. Other states do not share American policymakers’ benign view of their… https://t.co/Kg82VtGqH1
Michael McFaul @McFaul
Why did Putin intervene in Ukraine (2014), Syria (2015) & the US (2016)? My take: Putin, Putinism, and the Domestic Determinants of Russian Foreign Policy | International Security | MIT Press https://t.co/UHBM5sXwZG — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
NATO has a long history of cooperation with Russia. That changed not because of NATO actions or new power but because of Putin's changing ideas and behavior about Russian security. Leaders, their ideas, and their regimes matter in international politics. https://t.co/ZvCfJUqcxY — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
Between 2009-2011, U.S.-Russia relations experienced one of the most cooperative periods ever. That was AFTER two rounds of NATO expansion. For those arguing that NATO has been a constant threat to Russia, please explain then how this cooperative period occurred? — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
PS I wrote a whole book on this subject in 2018. Please tell me what I got wrong. I'll reconsider the evidence. And if you dont have time to read the book, Ill send you the slides. Email me. — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
Both Yeltsin and Putin at one time expressed interest in joining NATO. How do you explain that? Read Medvedev speech at Lisbon in 2010. He was not threatened by NATO at all. Just the opposite. Can your theory explain this variation? No. You need to add something beyond BOP. 2/. — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
You are expressing a realist IR theory (not a fat). have a different theory, which brings in leaders and regimes. In my view, the "NATO threat" has been a variable not a contestant over the last 30 years, driven by changing elites, their changing ideas, & regime types. 1/ — PolitiTweet.org
Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim
This is not how international politics works. Other states do not share American policymakers’ benign view of their… https://t.co/Kg82VtGqH1
Michael McFaul @McFaul
@stephenwertheim Ok, I now understand that you were expressing a hypothesis. I misunderstood Ir for stating an alleged fact. — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
@stephenwertheim Please express your opinion without telling me arrogantly “how international politics” works. (I’ve published in all the top IR journals too: I spent 5 years practicing IR; I’ve known Putin for 30 years). I’ll In turn treat your opinions with the same respect. — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
RT @McFaul: Awesome. — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
«Путин хочет, чтобы судьба Украины обсуждалась напрямую между Вашингтоном и Москвой» Бывший посол США в России Майкл Макфол объясняет читателям «Новой», почему войны не будет, хотя о ней все так много говорят https://t.co/eR3B7HALuY — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
@bneeditor Understood. — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
Where do you think all those weapons in Donbas come from? — PolitiTweet.org
