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Michael McFaul @McFaul
But those situations are of course very rare. — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
PS even “survival” is not always an “objective” national interest. Yeltsin, for instance, did not believe that USSR… https://t.co/Nza0UAwQ2l
Michael McFaul @McFaul
PS even “survival” is not always an “objective” national interest. Yeltsin, for instance, did not believe that USSR survival served the interests of the Russian people. — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
Well, agreed, that there are some set of minimal objective interests like survival. But then the “correct” strategi… https://t.co/2t3EeIOUb0
Michael McFaul @McFaul
Well, agreed, that there are some set of minimal objective interests like survival. But then the “correct” strategies to pursue these objective national interests become very subjective quickly. — PolitiTweet.org
William Ruger @WillRuger
Ignores that all states, even by definition, have a minimum set of objective national interests. And great powers c… https://t.co/kBsZoYyL7u
Michael McFaul @McFaul
Hey @GhostPanther loved #DontLookUp , which sparked a lengthy family discussion last night about individual activism. (& for us Russia watchers, the cameo photo of Seagal was special!) — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
When I was U.S. Ambassador to Russia, I never cleared cables that had phrases like "Russia thinks", "Russia wants", "Russia seeks" or "Russian national interests are". Countries don't think, all Russian don't think alike & 'Russian national interests' are not innate & fixed. — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
For more details (or my take) on this period, check out chapters 2 & 3 of Russia's Unfinished Revolution: Political Change from Gorbachev to Putin: https://t.co/o429dbGXXM — PolitiTweet.org
Indiana Jay @JJD_Aqua
@hdevreij @McFaul "It was Gorbachev, not weakening state institutions or a failing command economy, who triggered r… https://t.co/UvsG4NHSi8
Michael McFaul @McFaul
Дж. Голдгейр, М. Макфол, "Цель и средства. Политика США в отношении России после «холодной войны» https://t.co/NLik8vA23b https://t.co/BVlYkZhtvA — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
RT @EchoMskRu: Не пропустите завтра с 7:00 до 11:00 «Утренний разворот» с Александром Плющевым @plushev и Таней Фельгенгауэр! Гости эфира:… — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
@MrMaitra Ill check out your piece. — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
RT @hdevreij: 'Russia's Road to Autocracy'. Interesting article by .@McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia. https://t.co/5oCdA13f6e 'W… — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
But which is the more radical prediction—that Putinism will survive another two decades or that a new system, possibly a democratic one, will replace it? The former seems much more unlikely than the latter. 4/ END THREAD https://t.co/dhXrdejVm1 via @JoDemocracy — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
Both structural and agency theoretical traditions shed only faint light on current regime stability or guidance about future change. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
... since chance, fortuna, mistakes, or unexpected exogenous shocks (such as economic meltdown, war, or the death of a leader) always seem to play a major role in these models. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
"Modernization theories, however, are bad at point predictions. Agency theories also deliver little predictive power about the specific moments of regime change...." 1/ THREAD — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
"It happened before & can again. In addition, specific structural factors—such as education levels, GDP per capita, the emergence of a middle class not dependent on the state, or even urbanization—might pressure the regime in the future."2/ https://t.co/dhXrdejVm1 @JoDemocracy — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
"Russians are shaped but not trapped forever by historical legacies, immutable cultural norms, or static institutions. If some Russians in the past took decisions that produced autocracy, others in the future might make choices that engender democracy." 1/ — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
RT @ralakbar: Ultimatums, as we know from history, are often pretexts for annexation or war… Putin has published his wish list. And here 👇🏻… — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
.@DeputySecState Sherman and @mfa_russia DFM Ryabkov will lead the bilateral talks on European security. That's a very positive development. Both are very experienced diplomats and know each other well (from their work together on the Iran nuclear deal). — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
Biden & his foreign policy team began the year wanting to decrease focus on the Middle East/South Asia, freeze in place level of focus on Europe/Russia & increase focus on China/Asia. As the year ends, they have spent most of 2021 dealing with crises in ME/SA and Europe/Russia. — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
Moscow has fewer (& weaker) formal alliances than Washington, but its ties with China, including deepening military ties, have never been closer. In terms of overall military capacity, Russia likely ranks as the third most powerful country in the world.5/ https://t.co/63tLnPCSUz — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
"Putin has also made major investments in space weapons, intelligence, and cyber-capabilities, about which the United States learned the hard way when a major Russian hacking campaign was exposed last month." 4/ — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
"... and even outmatch NATO by some measures, including the number of tanks, cruise missiles, and troops on the NATO-Russian border." 3/ — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
"He [Putin] has also devoted vast resources to upgrading Russian conventional forces. The Kremlin’s armed forces do not have global reach, but they do pose a significant threat to Europe ... 2/ — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
"Russia remains a formidable military power and one of only two nuclear superpowers. Putin has invested heavily in nuclear modernization, while the United States has not." 1/ THREAD — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
"American thinking about Russia is clouded by misperceptions. Many analysts wrongly assume that Russia is a declining power, for example." https://t.co/63tLnPCSUz via @ForeignAffairs — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
My essay, from a year ago, on "How to Contain Putin’s Russia." Most of it is still worth consideration: https://t.co/63tLnPCSUz via @ForeignAffairs — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
Opinion | The best response to Russia’s threats is a closer relationship with Ukraine https://t.co/scK6G0z1wB — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
That said, Putin has outlined several demands in his "draft treaties" that should be absolutely unacceptable to Biden & other European leaders. At some point, Putin will have to back off those maximalist demands ... or invade. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
That he is talking today to Biden, therefore, is a good sign. Remember, in the Russian system, Putin is the only real foreign policy decisionmaker. No one else matters. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org
Michael McFaul @McFaul
Days before Putin seized control of Crimea in 2/2-14, I was in Sochi @ Olympics with then Deputy Secy of State Bill Burns. Once Yanukovich fled, we feared Russian military action & tried to meet with Putin to defuse matters. Putin was in Sochi but refused to meet. 1/ THREAD — PolitiTweet.org
