@RALee85 Tweets | PolitiTweet

Rob Lee @RALee85

Video of a Russian KUB-BLA loitering munition narrowly missing Ukrainian M777 howitzers (could have wounded the crew). https://t.co/7VC5cQcxVD https://t.co/QcfMOjuftB — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2022 Hibernated

Rob Lee @RALee85

Possible use of a VT/proximity fuze artillery round. 2/ https://t.co/AKRVPA1BnN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2022 Hibernated

Rob Lee @RALee85

Video from Ukraine's 25th Airborne Brigade of artillery strikes on Russian troops in a trench and a Russian BMP (BMP-1AM Basurmanin?). Also possible use of variable time fuzes. https://t.co/GJk2wnclzO https://t.co/DXzXAQ0j4C — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2022 Hibernated

Rob Lee @RALee85

@EHunterChristie But I don't think this is an expeditionary war like Syria or Afghanistan. Ukraine has been a, if not the, critical issue in Russian foreign policy, and there is no way to spin Ukraine taking back the Donbas as a victory. I think propaganda only goes so far. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2022 Hibernated

Rob Lee @RALee85

@wawastein The rate of losses Russia is sustaining in Ukraine is far higher in than what they sustained in Afghanistan, and Ukraine is much critical to Russian foreign policy than Afghanistan was. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2022 Hibernated

Rob Lee @RALee85

@APHClarkson @dpeleschuk And the casualties are far higher that what the Soviet Union sustained in Afghanistan over a much shorter period, and it will be even more difficult for the Russian military to reconstitute these forces. I think Russian soldiers will blame their leadership. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2022 Hibernated

Rob Lee @RALee85

@dpeleschuk If Russia loses the Donbas, I don’t think propaganda would be enough, and it would be less and less effective over time. Many of the economic consequences haven’t been truly felt yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2022 Hibernated

Rob Lee @RALee85

@leenur I’m not saying Putin would lose power right away. I’m saying that I doubt he would be able to stay in office past 2024. The costs from this war are far higher than the pension reforms and many of the economic costs haven’t been felt yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2022 Hibernated

Rob Lee @RALee85

I don’t think the US or EU should tell Ukraine how to end this conflict, but let’s not underestimate the possible consequences for Putin if this happens. Moscow doesn’t have good options at this point which is why it is continuing it current course. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2022 Hibernated

Rob Lee @RALee85

@UndercoverDane But they’re still fighting so people can still have hope that they will achieve their goals. Once the war ends, people will weigh the costs and benefits and it would be more difficult to paint it as a victory. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2022 Hibernated

Rob Lee @RALee85

@br4s1d4s I think there are serious risks for Putin if this conflict stagnates with the current front lines. The risks grow if they return to the Feb 24 lines, and they increase dramatically if Ukraine takes back the Donbas or Crimea. It would be a repudiation of Russian foreign policy. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2022 Hibernated

Rob Lee @RALee85

@br4s1d4s Yeah, that will happen but the costs have been significant from this war and they clearly outweigh the benefits. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2022 Hibernated

Rob Lee @RALee85

If Russian forces “just retreat across the border to Russia,” there is no reason to think most Russians would accept that as a victory. If that happens, Putin would likely lose power, or at least face heavy domestic pushback, which is why he didn’t do that on Victory Day. — PolitiTweet.org

If defeated in reality, Putin will just declare victory on television, and Russians will believe him, or pretend to… https://t.co/V8bZlkOJhJ

Posted May 18, 2022 Hibernated

Rob Lee @RALee85

2557/ https://t.co/miEwDUvIBw — PolitiTweet.org

Surrendered Ukrainian fighters leave Azovstal steel works https://t.co/mh963yXVYq https://t.co/slFWw0zw60