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Rob Lee @RALee85
Footage of the fire in Luhansk tonight. https://t.co/08X5cJHUwM https://t.co/pJnVaszprF — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Another video from earlier today. 2/ https://t.co/RIVWeVZFdQ https://t.co/TaTOXZAGSI — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
The sound of explosions in the Petrovsky District of Donetsk from earlier today. https://t.co/AjD5zNi0O8 https://t.co/NB3vOxLVfh — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Video of Russian Mi-28N, Ka-52, Mi-8, and Mi-35M helicopters in Khartsyzk. https://t.co/rr8oXEDr1I https://t.co/PWPHQAHkbx — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Luhansk tonight. 2/ https://t.co/XPfsVi88JA https://t.co/rr1ZQGwMkF — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Explosions in Luhansk. https://t.co/dTwrBXz3a8 https://t.co/maXn3g17zO — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Video of Russian spetsnaz in a Tigr-M vehicle operating an Arbalet-DM remote-operated weapon system. https://t.co/FLpJAp14nz https://t.co/YzklL1bWgm — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@gsoh31 Thanks Glen. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Two TASS sources say that Russia is developing a ballistic missile with a hypersonic payload designed to target aircraft carriers called the Zmeyevik. One of its sources compares it to the Chinese DF-21D and DF-26 anti-ship ballistic missiles. https://t.co/FHbokqw8Tg? — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
A source tells TASS that Russian Su-30SM fighters are using Kh-31 missiles in Ukraine. https://t.co/SvRrwe2ORv https://t.co/pgtuPgKpt8 — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Photos from the wreckage of that UAV posted by Russia’s RIA Novosti. 2/ https://t.co/0Wtax66ZBg — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Footage reportedly of the wreckage of a Ukrainian kamikaze UAV used in Enerhodar. https://t.co/JL22QKDJSV https://t.co/u7DiwSUm7m — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Video of a damaged Ukrainian M777 howitzer captured by Russian forces. https://t.co/LJgzQB03mX https://t.co/76eUCwQwkT — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Photos of Russian T-80BV tanks. 2/ https://t.co/X2n07pkNgo https://t.co/1MUNVq1PYA — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Photos of a Russian T-80B tank near Volnovakha. https://t.co/X2n07pkNgo https://t.co/qmlKtQu7NO — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@BuddyYakov I'm not sure about the full scope of training for Ukrainian units, but the US base in Hohenfels, Germany would be a natural place to train them. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
I included maps from @Nrg8000 and @Liveuamap, and screenshots from articles by @ChristopherJM, @yaffaesque, and @NeilPHauer in this thread. 31/ — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Over the next month, I suspect Russia’s offensive will slow, and Ukraine may be able to retake territory in Kherson. It is hard to predict what the war will look like by the fall because Ukraine's ability to sustain this war is highly contingent on the level of NATO support. 30/ — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Russia's voluntary mobilization program may falter over time and its spring draft seems to be struggling, but Russia will likely be able to sustain this war for the foreseeable future. The Kremlin will continue this war as long as it believes the military situation favors it. 29/ — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
For NATO, the question is what is its desired endstate in Ukraine and is its support commensurate with that goal? NATO is providing critical support, but Kyiv will likely require a more robust training program and ammo if it is to retake a sizeable amount of territory. 28/ — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Ukrainian officials have been talking about a future offensive, but it will heavily depend on how well-trained its forces are, including units with reservists, not just the # of troops. The UK is training Ukrainian soldiers, but it isn't clear that this will be sufficient. 27/ https://t.co/CFyOqsp7f3 — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Training Ukrainian platoons, companies, and maybe battalions to operate as units will be critical to Ukraine's ability to sustain this war, not just technical training. Units and soldiers require more training to conduct offensive operations rather than defending a trench. 26/ — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
This war is increasingly being fought by reservists/volunteers, which means the relative ability to train and equip these units is increasingly important. Despite plenty of problems, Russia probably has an advantage in being able to rudimentarily train and equip these units. 25/ https://t.co/fnpRDBqJAS — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@shashj According to the graphic, 6 of those are ammo depots, 6 are Russian military bases and one oil facility and one Russian military infrastructure target. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
And Ukraine would likely need to expend more artillery rounds in an offensive operation than in defense. Any supply issues would force Ukraine to be more conservative. Can NATO continue providing enough artillery and other ammunition by the fall or winter at this rate? 24/ — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
According to a US official, Ukraine is firing 3,000 155mm rounds a day. The most recent delivery from the US was for 260,000 rounds. At that rate, Ukraine will run through that in 3 months. How many 155mm rounds and GMLRS is the US currently producing? Is it enough to sustain?23/ https://t.co/0oRWbWu55R — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Although Ukraine now has plenty of NATO artillery systems, it has a logistical headache dealing with so many variants and Ukrainian soldiers didn’t have enough time to train on maintaining them. Maintenance for these new systems will likely be a greater issue over time. 22/ — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
This war is largely about sustainability now, and Russia has some advantages. It is likely better economically positioned and it likely has a large stockpile/better ability to produce some ammunition (e.g. artillery), though it is running low on longer-range missiles. 21/ https://t.co/20UICuBcFr — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
There was talk that Putin might declare a general mobilization on Victory Day. Instead, Russia has pursued a voluntary mobilization program by offering financial incentives. There are plenty of issues, but, so far, Russia has recruited enough volunteers to sustain the war. 20/ https://t.co/2H3wUMSBxw — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Ukraine has had some success counterattacking in Kherson but it clearly lacked enough combat-ready units to conduct a large-scale offensive there and defend the Donbas. It is clear that Kyiv made a decision to prioritize defending the Donbas and committed serious resources. 19/ — PolitiTweet.org
