Rob Lee

Rob Lee @RALee85

The Ukrainian Air Force says that it shot down 24 Shahed/ Geran-2 UAVs over night that were launched from eastern coast of the Sea of Azov. https://t.co/wPAkKoyaT8 https://t.co/Drycu99Wk4 — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

91/ https://t.co/WnqX1tRSZH — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Improvised armor on the T-72B3 and BMD-2. https://t.co/iBXjCTJbvu — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

@UticaEric I’ve heard mixed views of this. I think it depends whether they were equipped and manned properly. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Videos of paratroopers from the VDV’s 76th Air Assault Division on the Kreminna front with T-72B3, BMD-2, and BTR-ZD. https://t.co/6UOoA3By66 https://t.co/2vJTATtVMW https://t.co/iu9xCaIwjy https://t.co/y3MvohJH3I https://t.co/trHWl8PCVH — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

@mgerrydoyle MT-12. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Second half of the video showing UAVs dropping munitions on the BMPs and Russian soldiers after the advance was stopped. 6/ https://t.co/n5OYPuLsky — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Longer video from Ukraine's 36th Marine Brigade of the failed advance by Russian forces near Vodyane, Donetsk Oblast on Jan 14. The advance was stopped with MT-12 Rapira anti-tank guns, Stugna-P and Javelin ATGMs, and UAVs dropping munitions. 5/ https://t.co/SXpZ65qXjb https://t.co/hkEAVZH3kw — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Video of a Russian LMUR missile strike on a warehouse posted on January 10 in Kherson Oblast. 44/ https://t.co/kiIAsj2AJ5 https://t.co/BxVFucb3gb — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

https://t.co/luLOOJqYzC — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Video of Russian Lancet loitering munition strikes on an M777 and possibly a self-propelled howitzer reportedly in the 76th Air Assault Division’s AO. 98/ https://t.co/QxhUk8oLNE https://t.co/FbPkDSNZnl https://t.co/a6ViCGwxl7 — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Photos of a Russian Tor-M2 9A331M TLAR reportedly targeted by Ukrainian forces on January 14. It doesn’t appear that whatever hit it detonated. https://t.co/1tefqYUm6H https://t.co/as8LU9ObXj — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

@ain92ru That's at the end of the thread. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

He says that 30-50 tanks is unlikely to affect the situation, but 200-300 could be a significant operational factor. He says much will depend on Russian producers of anti-tank systems. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

@911Scotterz https://t.co/wGBx462fD1 — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

He also says that Russia lacks a 3rd generation ATGM like the Javelin, and that Russian forces don't have enough Kornets. Instead, older Konkurs and Fagot ATGMs are the bulk of Russia's ATGMs. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

This doesn't include T-90M, which aren't in serial production. He says Russian tanks are using old Soviet-era ammunition, which is sufficient against T-64, T-72, and T-80 tanks at short ranges, but NATO tanks could engage them at longer distances, putting them at a disadvantage. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Ruslan Pukhov argues that the delivery of Abrams tanks could seriously aggravate the situation at the front for Russian forces because even export variants of the M1A2 SEP V2 is significantly better than existing Russian tanks in serial production. https://t.co/JZQZXhRc32 https://t.co/HKFIU8SWMc — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

@TarasChuprynk I think ATACMS are more likely. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

@JayMcvann Thanks, Jay. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

This is particularly true if continued attrition in Bakhmut and elsewhere along the front weakens Ukrainian units that will need to be available for offensives later this year. 9/ — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

So this is good news, but NATO tanks are not a silver bullet. If NATO's goal is to help Kyiv so that it can retake all of its territory, this will likely need to include other systems like fighters and ATACMS to improve Ukraine's combined arms capabilities even more. 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

The question is whether the decision by NATO to provide tanks signals that the alliance may be willing to consider other systems needed by Ukraine in the future. These tanks are also another step in the Ukrainian military being equipped with NATO weapons. 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Personally, I think deliveries of new IFVs and APCs, like the Bradley and Stryker, are more significant than tanks because Ukraine lacks enough IFVs/APCs and the relative improvement of a Bradley/Stryker over BMP-1/MRAP is even greater than Leopard 2 over many Ukrainian tanks. 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Tanks will undoubtedly play a key role in Ukraine's future offensives as in Kharkiv and Kherson. The new tanks will increase Kyiv's chances for success but not guarantee it. They are just one component of combined arms, and can only partially compensate for other weaknesses. 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

These new tanks also open up a new line of ammunition available to Ukraine, which is critical since they have been using tanks as artillery. Procuring 3 new types of tanks will be a logistical headache, but it will also give them more options for replacing future tank losses. 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Challenger 2, Leopard 2, and Abrams are more survivable and have better optics and fire control systems. That will give Ukrainian tankers an advantage in tank-on-tank fights and other engagements, and tank crews will be more likely to survive (and keep fighting). 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Ukraine's goal is to retake all of its territory occupied by Russia. Breaking through well-prepared defensive lines (and exploiting success) is difficult without significant combined arms advantages, and Ukraine is unlikely to have air superiority. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Thread. It's good news that NATO members will provide modern tanks to Ukraine. Tanks remain a critical component in ground warfare, and Ukraine has the most experienced tank crews in the world. However, we should be realistic about what these deliveries mean. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

4610/ https://t.co/PwHsBEYpjk — PolitiTweet.org