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Rob Lee @RALee85
The front line is massive, but Ukraine just needs to find weak spots in the line and mass armor, artillery/HIMARS, and professional units. This part of the front was apparently held by light SOBR and mobilized LDNR forces. Even a tank company could be enough to punch through. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@OAJonsson @WarOnTheRocks Thanks Oscar. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
13/ https://t.co/Ha4c7S1y4z — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
The Russian Zapiski Veteran Channel says that Ukrainian forces have also taken Semenivka and are moving towards She… https://t.co/tBX5vbL1Sq
Rob Lee @RALee85
@havard_lindheim https://t.co/M7Pujfqbet — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
I think we know why these Russian channels were so concerned yesterday with this offensive. It seems Russia doesn't have strong reserves in this area that could be sent quickly to plug gaps and reinforce key towns. Ukraine may have a numerical and armor superiority here. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
The Russian Zapiski Veteran Channel says that Ukrainian forces have also taken Semenivka and are moving towards She… https://t.co/tBX5vbL1Sq
Rob Lee @RALee85
@KremlinTrolls Seems they didn't have many reserves there. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
The Russian Zapiski Veteran Channel says that Ukrainian forces have also taken Semenivka and are moving towards Shevchenkove. https://t.co/Abhei7H1i0 https://t.co/T2iVTilQ7V — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Already a strong theme from the Russian Telegram accounts that this is a Russian military leadership failure that is putting soldiers on the front lines at greater risk than they should be. 12/ https://t.co/GE0odCV0o9 — PolitiTweet.org
Dmitri @wartranslated
Russian Aleksandr Kots confirmed much more sophisticated plans of Ukrainians to cut off the Izyum group; Balakliya… https://t.co/M5DiBm3TcO
Rob Lee @RALee85
RT @LawDavF: Support from Girkin for @RALee85's thesis about the importance of armour for Ukrainian offensive. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
11/ https://t.co/IEXAs5Xbci — PolitiTweet.org
Dmitri @wartranslated
Girkin says Balakliya was defended by LDPR mobilised and Rosgvardia who didn't know how to use available heavy weap… https://t.co/sCqpzHM9rR
Rob Lee @RALee85
VDV's 11th Air Assault Brigade. https://t.co/ZCbNXRNQlI — PolitiTweet.org
Oliver Carroll @olliecarroll
Russian elite air assault unit badges picked up by a Ukrainian recon soldier from Vysokopillya, NE Kherson. Ukraine… https://t.co/8S8NVEUdrZ
Rob Lee @RALee85
@APHClarkson https://t.co/DnUth1MnrL — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Another Russian Channel questions why battalion and company commanders didn’t see the offensive coming and prepare and that they shouldn’t have made a public warning if higher ignored them. They suggest senior officers are incompetent and ignored Intel.10/ https://t.co/l1Fgmyb5Lp https://t.co/RCwd5JtxBB — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Tatarsky tells Rosgvardia troops to learn how to call for fire before deploying and how to use AGS grenade launchers, ATGM, and SPG-9. A reminder that they aren’t trained for conventional war. 9/ https://t.co/EoHnc3CzAV https://t.co/UlJKEAzokj — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
This was Putin, Shoigu, and Gerasimov at Vostok 2022 yesterday as Ukraine launched its offensive in the Balakliya area. 8/ https://t.co/rIFZcnGh7j — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Keeping with tradition, Putin, Shoigu, and Gerasimov are all at the Sergeevsky training area for the active phase o… https://t.co/aPyNFFfYC1
Rob Lee @RALee85
7/ https://t.co/NUrUUaEG2G — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Interestingly, a number of Russian Telegram channels have been talking about a Ukrainian buildup in Kharkiv over th… https://t.co/tIgdcc816V
Rob Lee @RALee85
https://t.co/eBXNF00CQb 6/ — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Another Ru account says they are only fighting at partial strength and that the Russian state must be fully mobilized. They question why capabilities are being shown at Vostok 2022 when Russian soldiers lack artillery and aviation. “We have a long and difficult fight ahead of us” https://t.co/bFH9JSBGCu — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Vladlen Tatarsky says he trusts the info from the Starshe Eddy and Zapiski Veteran channels who are both involved in the fighting in the Kharkiv-Izyum direction. He says the two encircled Rosgvardia units are SOBR from Samara and Bashkiria. 4/ https://t.co/q1LlkAvGyy https://t.co/eNfmhEXuPF — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@DionisCenusa @AlexKokcharov So I was primarily talking about the military situation. I don't know the economic side that well, so I generally refrain from commenting on it. Certainly, the economic dimension is critical as well. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Another Russian channel says “don’t expect good news today” before saying Russian units there are below 50% manning levels while the staff are bloated. Two Rosgvardia detachments have been fighting for more than a day encircled near Volokhiv Yar. 3/ https://t.co/UvQS5R8a0k https://t.co/z3PGUHINEc — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Another Russian Telegram channel says that Ukraine increased the intensity of missiles strikes, particularly HIMARS, over the past week on Izyum, Kupyansk, and other areas. They say Ukraine has been preparing for the offensive for at least a month. 2/ https://t.co/uB0eIAGlIK https://t.co/Jy2VgXgyak — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
According to the Russian Starshe Eddy channel, not only is Balakliya encircled but Ukrainian forces appear to have taken Volokhiv Yar over night. They think Ukraine will try to push towards Kupyansk. https://t.co/UyiUSbZYC2 https://t.co/IUg3tV4NWH — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@CarlosValdes21 In those wars, Russia was defending its territory from foreign invaders. Russia hasn't mobilized for this war, so it is still being fought by volunteers. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@HoldensDad47 Heavy attrition in the first month led to this. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Agreed. I think Russia will struggle to keep recruiting sufficient volunteers, and the better quality of the training for Ukrainian volunteers will become more pronounced. Ukraine's advantage in morale will be a bigger factor when both sides are sitting in trenches in January. — PolitiTweet.org
The New Voice of Ukraine @NewVoiceUkraine
The Ukrainian army will have the upper hand over Russian forces in winter, Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) analyst… https://t.co/4EIvk5XuoG
Rob Lee @RALee85
@david_m_allison @LawDavF I didn’t say war is unchanged; I’m saying the recent data don’t show the tank is obsolete. New threats lead to new TTPs and countermeasures. If you do away with tanks, ground forces will likely take even higher casualties. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@Dr_M_Davis @WarOnTheRocks Thanks Malcolm. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@shashj @HoansSolo I believe a knowledgeable Russian mil blogger said they were running low on 122mm awhile ago. Not sure why, but videos from LNR/DNR/regular Russian military units seem to almost always show 152mm artillery at this point. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@peterwsinger Thanks Peter. — PolitiTweet.org
