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Rob Lee @RALee85
@GriffinFill During the 2020 war, Azebaijan shelled Armenian territory and Russia pretended it didn't happen. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@GriffinFill Before 2020, many Armenians were convinced that they would be able to defeat Azerbaijan if a war broke out despite the changes in equipment. They didn't think they would have to depend on Russia to intervene. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Armenia has plenty of reasons to be upset with Russian foreign policy, including providing $5 billion worth of arms to Azerbaijan, but Russia's intervention after the battle for Shusha is why the war ended then. And Russia has used gas as a leverage over Armenia as well. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
If Armenia was not an ally with Russia, it would be in the exact same position. It is a small not particularly wealthy country bordered by two unfriendly, larger, and wealthier countries. This has literally nothing to do with the perception of Russia as a great power. — PolitiTweet.org
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien
Armenians are paying the strategic price of thinking Russia was a great power. https://t.co/PQnO3qjdoh
Rob Lee @RALee85
39/ https://t.co/Bt32xlptos — PolitiTweet.org
Dmitri @wartranslated
Each day fewer Russians continue buying the Russian Ministry of Defence crap and appear to be opening their eyes. T… https://t.co/AdKFtCYAhW
Rob Lee @RALee85
2/ — PolitiTweet.org
Brady Africk @bradyafr
Destroyed warehouses in Russian-occupied Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast are visible in low-resolution satellite imagery… https://t.co/kcuQonQUfQ
Rob Lee @RALee85
RT @peterwsinger: What if you could ask some of the world's leading thinkers on war anything you wanted to know about Ukraine conflict? Th… — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Russia's 4th Tank Division has two tank regiments, which each have ~93 T-80U variant tanks. With the most recent losses in Izyum, it has lost nearly a full regiment of T-80U variant tanks in Ukraine, or half its total that weren't in storage. https://t.co/MHO5fb4kd3 https://t.co/IRJDuJFmsh — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
If Russia hadn't repositioned additional forces to Kherson, we would likely be talking about Ukraine's successful offensive there and not Kharkiv. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
3/ https://t.co/osEJRifDPX — PolitiTweet.org
Jack Detsch @JackDetsch
NEW: Ukraine is showing effectiveness in using armor in counteroffensives against Russia: senior U.S. defense offic… https://t.co/U3ix3QZmSR
Rob Lee @RALee85
The fact that Ukrainian officials are emphasizing the need for tanks and infantry fighting vehicles right after conducting a highly successful ground offensive is another indication that armor was critical to last week's successes and, in their view, any future successes. — PolitiTweet.org
Dmytro Kuleba @DmytroKuleba
Disappointing signals from Germany while Ukraine needs Leopards and Marders now — to liberate people and save them… https://t.co/n4IE39pAZO
Rob Lee @RALee85
The reporting also indicates that Kherson is not a feint nor was it designed to draw Russian forces away from Kharkiv. Ukraine is trying to achieve gains in both areas, but Russia didn't have the forces to defend both regions. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
"The counteroffensive — revised this summer from its original form after urgent discussions between senior U.S. and… https://t.co/5LsqYV0xrY
Rob Lee @RALee85
We often focus on what wargaming gets wrong, but here is an example of a dramatic success. https://t.co/j0x6egcfaX — PolitiTweet.org
Ian TB @ian_tb03
There’s that #wargaming again: https://t.co/n3OQvt87JJ
Rob Lee @RALee85
"The counteroffensive — revised this summer from its original form after urgent discussions between senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials" "Instead of one large offensive, the Ukrainian military proposed two." https://t.co/qr1SzyABe7 https://t.co/36qSg0OtoF — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
RT @Mortis_Banned: I think the biggest issue is a Russian military (really, any government agency) culture that can be summed up with "You… — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Video of two Russian Su-25 attack aircraft in a close call with two MANPADS. https://t.co/8gZ1MmBG9y https://t.co/F9wXz92Q5U — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
4163/ https://t.co/q6AwXbil8K — PolitiTweet.org
Jack Detsch @JackDetsch
NEW: The U.S. has trained 1,475 members of the Ukrainian military on American weapons since Russia's full-scale inv… https://t.co/Daa6onzhFo
Rob Lee @RALee85
Video of that destroyed Russian TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS recorded yesterday with some of its rockets. https://t.co/Lz6ZVQywGW — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Ukrainian AHS Krab howitzers and a humvee as part of the offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. https://t.co/PEXISlgi42 — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@TheJoelWestphal @C_M_Dougherty Nope. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@AlekseiMiniailo @BBCNews Completely agree. This is the system Putin has built (he's the one who left Gerasimov and Shoigu in charge for a decade), and any further significant military reforms would likely require a political change as well. There is no quick fix. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@PatrickBury @ChrisO_wiki The corruption issues were known, but it is difficult to predict how that corruption would specifically affect performance on an operation. I would also add that the Ru military was heavily attritted in Feb-March, so we're now seeing an amalgam of professional/volunteer units. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@IronEconomist I think we can safely say the Russian military does not properly incentivize the right behavior. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
3/ https://t.co/jEXPp7wblo — PolitiTweet.org
Mark Krutov @kromark
Soldiers from the 1st Motor Rifle Regiment, part of elite Russian unit, 2nd Guards Tamanskaya Motor Rifle Division… https://t.co/RyEOrcyHYH
Rob Lee @RALee85
@azeem Years, because you have to get currently serving officers who may serve for another decade or more to change their behavior. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@ChrisO_wiki I think part of it is that junior officers are disincentivized from passing up bad information. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@AlekseiMiniailo @BBCNews I've heard that he was widely hated, and many of the reforms were painful but they were necessary (and they were Putin's reforms). In Ukraine we're seeing the Russian military commit very basic mistakes, which makes clear it still needs additional extensive reforms. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
I think the 11th Army Corps likely suffered heavy losses. https://t.co/2mhDtOxCTG — PolitiTweet.org
Dmitri @wartranslated
🔥 Internal conflicts: [ audio recording, where 🇷🇺 military blaming LNR forces for fleeing and leaving equipment – 2… https://t.co/f1KbCTUV8B
Rob Lee @RALee85
@nikola_mikovic Possible, but they have the authority to change things at the operational level, which they haven't. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Agree with Alexander. It is a Russian military cultural issue, which is difficult to fix without serious reforms (and would take a long time). https://t.co/uDnqXQwI8T — PolitiTweet.org
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson
The structural dysfunctions of the Russian officer corps brings us to questions of how military culture evolves or… https://t.co/R3L19iIqZp
