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Rob Lee @RALee85
@StephenB_80 Exactly how this war would end on Russia's terms has been unclear since the battle for the Donbas began. Even if Russia had seized the Donbas, that wouldn't end the war. I think they are hoping Ukraine will give up or external support will dry up. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Who gives orders to Wagner in Ukraine? I don't think Prigozhin or his subordinates report to any of the Russian military group commanders. Maybe they report to the overall commander, or Prigozhin just talks directly to Putin going outside of the chain of command. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
I think it is actually a Wagner unity of command and incentive problem. Wagner appears to be in charge of the Bakhmut front for Russia. They'll receive credit for taking it (as they did with Popasna), but will get little by helping plug holes in Russia's lines elsewhere. — PolitiTweet.org
Tom Warner @warnerta
I see one answer to two puzzles about the recent course of this war. Why did Russia leave Kharkiv oblast so exposed… https://t.co/xV3Acq7vGO
Rob Lee @RALee85
Longer video shows the tank survived the strike. There are actually a few videos showing Russian tanks surviving ATGM strikes (something to keep in mind when saying the tank is obsolete). 2/ https://t.co/FMqTQuault — PolitiTweet.org
BlueSauron👁️ @Blue_Sauron
Russian MBT receives a direct ATGM hit, however missile fails to penetrate into the tank’s armour. #Russia #Ukraine https://t.co/BVLQNZYGZr
Rob Lee @RALee85
@uxb99 https://t.co/L5lx8ilgPw — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Video of a Russian T-72B series tank with a plow struck by an ATGM. https://t.co/TcF6U0Whx2 https://t.co/SUiqvL3QMt — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
NATO policy should still be focused on providing Kyiv with more advantages to win the war (Russian officials still say regime change is the goal). NATO tanks and IFVs are more survivable and the Kharkiv offensive demonstrated their importance in this stage https://t.co/VoZ9a9rfmr — PolitiTweet.org
Gustav C. Gressel @GresselGustav
Sharing the burden of supplying vehicles to 🇺🇦 beteen many countries s better than isolated do it alone. The… https://t.co/SoF2kWTIOV
Rob Lee @RALee85
@ruth_deyermond Very true. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
4186/ https://t.co/4OpEx3nG7E — PolitiTweet.org
Mark Krutov @kromark
1/5 Employees of Gazprom, Russian energy giant, are being forced to chip in at least RUB 1000 (17 US dollars) each… https://t.co/B3Byn8QZxb
Rob Lee @RALee85
@ruth_deyermond Absolutely. Things like precision fires, manpower, and training are related to external support. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@Mitch402744 Many of them are interrelated. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@DmitryOpines Things like discipline and morale are very important advantages when the weather gets bad. And many Russian volunteers are serving under 3-6 month contracts. Not sure how many will want to sign up to sit in a trench in January. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
-NATO/US intelligence How and when these advantages will translate into further successes on the battlefield is hard to say, and there is no guarantee of another rapid Kharkiv-like success. But Ukraine is militarily in a stronger position, and it will likely only become stronger. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@novus_os That might be more of a reflection of the disconnect between Wagner and Russian MoD. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@VolteFaceInvest Yeah, I included that in the morale category. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Ukraine has an advantage in: -manpower -learning lessons -interior lines -command and control/leadership -clearer strategic goals -precision fires -morale -ability to strike behind Russian lines (partisans) -training volunteers Many of these will grow over time. I'm optimistic. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Another indication that Ukraine has a manpower advantage (not just in troops but in operational units) and there it… https://t.co/Qw8EGyWnWT
Rob Lee @RALee85
@STRATMIL Ukraine has had that advantage since April though. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Another indication that Ukraine has a manpower advantage (not just in troops but in operational units) and there it little reason to suspect Russia can compensate short of a significant policy change. — PolitiTweet.org
Dmitri @wartranslated
Pro-Russian "Vostok" battalion commander Aleksandr Khodakovsky says Ukraine continues transferring forces in prepar… https://t.co/OZ9SYTbDuE
Rob Lee @RALee85
A captured Russian Kartograf UAV in Mykolaiv Oblast. https://t.co/UeF7qbj5b7 https://t.co/GYkvuevfNj — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Video of a captured Russian T-72B3 obr 2016 tank towing the captured Russian T-90M tank. 3/ https://t.co/UyuY8h8Erd https://t.co/gZH2ri6ypW — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
More photos. 2/ https://t.co/lHRV1KYAeN https://t.co/VEqpjFZCFl — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Looks like Ukrainian forces have captured the first Russian T-90M tank. Russia’s most modern tank. https://t.co/SSDgz2cO2a https://t.co/f2bC9gU324 — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@David_Hambling Combined arms involves different arms working together to mitigate their weaknesses. Artillery, HIMARS, SOF were all important too. Doubtful that Ukraine would have achieved this level of success without tanks and mechanized infantry as well. https://t.co/whaaWup1gU — PolitiTweet.org
Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof
Ukrainian forces seem to have seized some 3,000 sq km and going in a few days in a rapid mechanized thrust that has… https://t.co/QrJq6DPgj0
Rob Lee @RALee85
The most likely result when you take away a key component of ground combined arms warfare is that more grunts will die. Not sure that's a good solution. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@lodewijkhof Not really. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
The survivability of infantrymen hasn't increased that much and they're still vulnerable to machine guns and unguided artillery as in World War I. Ukraine's prospects for retaking more territory if they lacked tanks and IFVs would be quite low. Still waiting for an alternative. — PolitiTweet.org
Billy Fabian @BillyFabian32
The whole tank debate has been playing out in a weird contextless vacuum. Ubiquitous ISR also impacts lighter vehic… https://t.co/51YAzbhqJp
Rob Lee @RALee85
RT @BillyFabian32: The whole tank debate has been playing out in a weird contextless vacuum. Ubiquitous ISR also impacts lighter vehicles a… — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Video of a RPG launched at Ukrainian SSO in humvees and another armored vehicle. No one was hurt. https://t.co/ojxaeo2UbV https://t.co/zPdnqvNdS2 — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@grkdirik The Navy and Air Force were in a weaker position then, but the ground component has been thoroughly taxed in this war and Ukraine has rendered much of it combat ineffective. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
The Russian military's conventional capabilities vis-a-vis NATO is weaker now than any point over the past decade. — PolitiTweet.org
