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Rob Lee @RALee85
More Russian 2S4 Tyulpan 240mm heavy mortars on the move. — PolitiTweet.org
IgorGirkin @GirkinGirkin
По дороге в Липецк https://t.co/GU0We5rbFk
Rob Lee @RALee85
RT @GirkinGirkin: По дороге в Липецк https://t.co/GU0We5rbFk — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
It also signals that Putin realizes that losing this war would pose a significant domestic threat to his rule. What is the bigger risk for him: mobilization, use of tactical nuclear weapons, or losing the Donbas and other occupied areas of Ukraine? — PolitiTweet.org
Nataliya Vasilyeva @Nat_Vasilyeva
Tatyana @Stanovaya whose predictions of the war have sadly for all of us been consistently true says the Kremlin wi… https://t.co/YHQj1P2fUI
Rob Lee @RALee85
@stick631 Agreed. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
If Russia decides to escalate, the first step would likely be to deploy the conscript battalions in the Russian military rather than necessarily mobilizing Russian society or conscripting civilians across Russia. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@klinovp I think it would be politically quite risky to imprison hundreds or thousands of soldiers who choose to not fight in this war. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
The medium and long-term military factors favor Ukraine. This may achieve short-term benefits, but it would likely lead to greater problems over time. Conscripts currently serving will be less likely to sign contracts and a much higher % of Russians will dodge the fall draft. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@Mortis_Banned @SpBDaveTDC What do you do if several soldiers sabotage their equipment? Do you arrest a significant % of your unit that is supposed to be holding part of the line? I can imagine many ways in which this goes wrong. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
My tentative view is that the Kremlin is still resisting mobilization and will try everything short of it first (e.g. recruiting prisoners). Russia's strategy since April has involved a # of short-term solutions strung together in hopes that they would lead to long-term success. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
I wonder if this will actually be passed, or if it is designed as a threat to coerce currently serving Russian serv… https://t.co/teN3sEPdSt
Rob Lee @RALee85
6/ https://t.co/l04VxocMYw — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
The problem is that the # of refuseniks is substantial so this would depend on successful coercion. And if you have… https://t.co/BguWjX7NjZ
Rob Lee @RALee85
@Mortis_Banned But more difficult to prove equipment damage was due to negligence than outright refusal. Plus, I can imagine most Russian equipment isn't in the best shape. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
5/ https://t.co/l04VxocMYw — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
The problem is that the # of refuseniks is substantial so this would depend on successful coercion. And if you have… https://t.co/BguWjX7NjZ
Rob Lee @RALee85
4/ https://t.co/g1ZGT0eHTK — PolitiTweet.org
козлов @petrkozlov
@maxseddon The thing is when Putin wants to make a move, he does not care about the legal framework. He just acts.… https://t.co/RH9cR5x9Jl
Rob Lee @RALee85
Good point. Even if passed, it isn't clear how it will be applied. The Kremlin certainly hopes this is enough to coerce refuseniks to fight, but doesn't actually want to put many soldiers in prison. Maybe there will one or two well-publicized cases. 3/ https://t.co/ccRYEPVL9Y — PolitiTweet.org
Mary Ilyushina @maryilyushina
Judging by two swift hearings in the Duma today it will most likely get passed, but the language of the law is quit… https://t.co/XNxn5J8Xom
Rob Lee @RALee85
@Poutsup They don't have any good options, so they keep pursuing short-term solutions without a long-term plan. It is just Whac-A-Mole applied to manpower problems. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
The problem is that the # of refuseniks is substantial so this would depend on successful coercion. And if you have units with several soldiers who don't want to fight, you'll have an increase in soldiers sabotaging their vehicles, disobedience, etc. Nightmare for morale. — PolitiTweet.org
Dmitri @wartranslated
More details of the proposed amendments to the Russian Criminal Code concerning "mobilisation" and "martial law". https://t.co/kTKACVrA7K
Rob Lee @RALee85
The number of Russian soldiers who are refusing to fight is not an insignificant number. 20-40% of units in some cases. Getting them to fight, even if unmotivated, would provide an important manpower boost. But it is still a short-term solution to a longer-term problem. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
I wonder if this will actually be passed, or if it is designed as a threat to coerce currently serving Russian servicemen who are refusing to deploy. — PolitiTweet.org
Liveuamap @Liveuamap
Draft law to criminalise refusal to take part in combat actions proposed to Russian State Duma. Sentence up to 10 y… https://t.co/DCA0xaCegn
Rob Lee @RALee85
@Taurevanime Humvees and M113 aren't IFVs and I was talking about more modern IFVs like the Marder, which are certainly better protected than BMP-1. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
4/ https://t.co/9Gt2Nx5zFf — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Jawin @PaulJawin
46.638072, 32.117387 near Oleksandrivka village and Solonets' Lake. Kherson region. Thanks @azyakancokkacan &… https://t.co/40vuuGz77b
Rob Lee @RALee85
Footage of three Russian T-72 series tanks firing at Ukrainian positions. They then come under UAV-corrected artillery fire and retreat. 3/ https://t.co/kjPAHtJdja — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Footage of the tank battle in Kherson Oblast. 2/ https://t.co/dMIShOAY7Y — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Video from Ukraine's Terra unit showing a tank battle in the Kherson direction. https://t.co/W4OLa4WUOZ https://t.co/dNHKomQcx7 — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
4190/ https://t.co/RzGzf4qshU — PolitiTweet.org
Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM
Saddened to learn Andriy Nikolaychuk, dep commander of Ukraine’s 93rd Mechanized Brigade, was killed yesterday in r… https://t.co/LC1iM7z7EW
Rob Lee @RALee85
4189/ https://t.co/6tA2jtZZ2Q — PolitiTweet.org
Jack Detsch @JackDetsch
NEW: U.S. defense official said "tanks are on the table" for Ukrainian forces but Ukraine will need to show the abi… https://t.co/59KhMkGP0a
Rob Lee @RALee85
RT @ABarbashin: Highly recommend this @konrad_muzyka analysis "Ukrainian strategy has been to trade territory for time, and with mounting… — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@vfroloff Possible, but I don't think spetsnaz brigades are given battlespace to control, nor artillery, aircraft, and other support equipment. And they have their own recruiting and training system. Not sure they are still under operational control of the GRU as in Syria. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Germany says it is delivering another 4 PzH 2000 howitzers to Ukraine. 4188/ https://t.co/GiAYCJhIup — PolitiTweet.org
Verteidigungsministerium @BMVg_Bundeswehr
#News: Die Bundeswehr unterstützt die #Ukraine trotz angespannter Materiallage mit 4 weiteren Panzerhaubitzen 2000… https://t.co/OGRoEYmAv9
Rob Lee @RALee85
4187/ https://t.co/T3K2EQ3I2Q — PolitiTweet.org
Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture
There is a lot going on in #Ukraine at the moment. The macro story is that Russia appears to have lost the initiati… https://t.co/67YEoVz1JR
Rob Lee @RALee85
@KofmanMichael They're certainly dependent on logistics, ammunition, and other support (though they have their own artillery and Su-25) from the Russian military but not sure about operational control. Feels as though Prigozhin is trying to act as an equivalent to a group commander or higher. — PolitiTweet.org
