Rob Lee

Rob Lee @RALee85

@DAlperovitch Even once Russia declares these regions part of Russia? https://t.co/PE7SlEOuEn — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Each regiment and brigade was supposed to have one conscript battalion (also with officers and contract NCOs), but Russia's manpower issues have been so serious that I assume most of these officers and NCOs were already deployed. Not sure they are still coherent battalions. 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

@AleksRomanovs Yes, but Putin and Shoigu's descriptions signal that they are not going to start with a general mobilization right away even though they legally could. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Russia dismantled parts of the Soviet mobilization system with cadre units with officers and equipment ready to take on mobilized conscripts. Conscripts and reservists may be used as combat replacements to fill out understrength Russian units currently in Ukraine, instead. 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

This is true, which is why we'll need to wait and see how the order is applied. Russia may start by mobilizing a small share of reservists under the narrow conditions Shoigu mentioned and then increase that over time in response to developments. 6/ https://t.co/9aFvE8iefE — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

@chheinzel Those parts of Ukraine are about to "legally" become part of Russia, which would allow their deployment. But we'll have to wait and see. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

@Capt_Navy That's why we need to wait to see how it will be applied. They may start with a more limited form and then gradually increase it. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

But the war will now increasingly be fought on the Russian side by people who do not want to be there. The difference in morale, unit cohesion, and other critical factors between Ukrainian and Russian units will grow even greater. 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

In the short-term, those two steps could be enough to prevent a collapse of Russian forces. Otherwise, Russia's manpower issues could have become catastrophic this winter when many short-term volunteers likely would not sign another contract. 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

There are two important immediate effects from this order: conscripts currently serving in the Russian military likely will be deployed to fight in Ukraine, and volunteers serving on short contracts will be stop-lossed into continuing to serve. 3/ https://t.co/mkbUvowzdS — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Much of this depends on how this order is applied. The number of reservists with combat experience is limited, though they may include everyone who deployed to Syria. Shoigu is notoriously unreliable when it comes to figures so don't treat them as fact. 2/ https://t.co/2bviTBHJJV — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Thread: 1) There are more unknowns than knowns at this point 2) It is one of the most significant/riskiest political decisions Putin has ever made 3) He is still resisting a broader mobilization 4) It is an acknowledgment that Russia's war was failing and a change had to be made — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Of course, if Russia claims that these occupied territories in Ukraine are Russian, it could then "legally" deploy conscripts even without calling it a war. 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

@BastienErard @KevinRothrock I think deploying conscript battalions could help Russia in the short-term but it would lead to more draft evasion for the call up this fall. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

6/ https://t.co/rf1zZemnIP — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

The false excuse that losing Kharkiv wasn't a strategic loss for Russia can't be said about Luhansk where Ukrainian forces are advancing. Capturing the entirety of the Donbas is an official goal of Russia's war. Not sure the Kremlin could be seen doing nothing again. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

RT @ElenaChernenko: It is expected that Russian president Vladimir Putin makes a special statement on Ukraine today at 20-00 msk, after tha… — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Even if Russia mobilizes (I think deploying currently serving conscripts is more likely), almost all of these factors still favor Ukraine, including over the medium to long-term. A large number of poorly trained and motivated soldiers isn't a huge advantage. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

RT @oivshina: Estimates of the Russian soldiers KIA vary greatly. But it’s not only the total number of losses which is important, but also… — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

RT @maxseddon: Kremlin pool reporters now saying Shoigu will speak alongside Putin. https://t.co/W61GiMnyor — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

The "stop the count" military strategy. https://t.co/wuFD8hzEWx — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

@KevinRothrock Yes. Russia dismantled much of the Soviet reserve system for taking on large numbers of conscripts. The officers and NCOs are already fighting. Not clear who would train or lead them. I would expect serious morale problems as well. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

This sounds right. Possibly an attempt at coercing NATO members who are supporting Ukraine with the threat of mobilization or possible nuclear escalation if Ukrainian forces retake more territory. The question is whether it is a bluff. 5/ https://t.co/pfg3qXIptZ — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

RT @baunov: 4/9 Foreign troops crossing Russia’s borders, even if the border has just moved, will be used by Putin to justify renaming the… — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

RT @baunov: 3/9 That message is: “You chose to fight us in Ukraine, now try to fight us in Russia itself, or, to be precise, what we call R… — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Another short-term effect is that we'll likely see another exodus of Russian military-age men, including those who returned after Feb-March. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

To state the obvious, there are massive political risks for Putin if he decides to go for a broader mobilization or just to deploy conscript battalions to the front, and no guarantee that it would help Russia take more territory or serve as a long-term solution. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

@JayMcvann @DavidLarter But the political decision to mobilize needs to be made first. It will take time to actually form units once that decision has been made. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

@arcivanov Yeah, I just wonder how useful they would be. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

If Russia decides to go for a broader mobilization, it will take time since much of the reserve structure from the Soviet military has been dismantled. That means a decision point would be sooner in order to stem losses that could occur months from now. 4/ — PolitiTweet.org