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Rob Lee @RALee85
RT @WarintheFuture: Yesterday, I had the pleasure of joining the @CNASdc Brussels Sprouts team of @jteurope & @AKendallTaylor, along with… — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
4197/ https://t.co/4OVEk3pjd3 — PolitiTweet.org
Ilya Lozovsky @ichbinilya
In Buratiya, male uni students are being taken straight out of classes. Some schools have closed and turned into en… https://t.co/G9zMUkgQy9
Rob Lee @RALee85
Of course, if this mobilization disproportionally affects certain poorer regions (whether by design or not), it is easy to foresee the serious political problems that will create. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Many of these regions have already sustained heavy losses in this war (and have many refuseniks). A mobilization that focuses on recent veterans will also disproportionally affect regions where there are more military units because they will have the most veterans. — PolitiTweet.org
Bakhti Nishanov @b_nishanov
Everything I’ve seen on this mobilization so far points to Yakutia, Saha, Buryatia, Dagestan, Chechnya being mobili… https://t.co/fyNbWWl3gs
Rob Lee @RALee85
4196/ https://t.co/pf3EWf8YiD — PolitiTweet.org
Dasha Afanasieva @dasha_reports
More signs that the mobilization in Russia is far from partial. This 32-year old IT worked has been drafted despite… https://t.co/wSNk8ut8f0
Rob Lee @RALee85
4195/ https://t.co/4019zhQyeh — PolitiTweet.org
Evan Gershkovich @evangershkovich
protesters detained in Moscow tonight are reportedly getting drafted right at the police station
Rob Lee @RALee85
4194/ https://t.co/3dTG11V7ru — PolitiTweet.org
Felix Light @felix_light
KREMLIN, ASKED ABOUT REPORTS OF DETAINED ANTI-MOBILISATION PROTESTERS BEING GIVEN DRAFT PAPERS: 'THIS IS NOT AGAINST THE LAW' - Reuters
Rob Lee @RALee85
4193/ https://t.co/dDMTcjSgdm — PolitiTweet.org
Pjotr Sauer @PjotrSauer
Regional officials will be eager to show their loyalty to the Kremlin and mobilise as quickly and as widely as poss… https://t.co/2YgEp7hUU3
Rob Lee @RALee85
4192/ https://t.co/K4oRuUG1kn — PolitiTweet.org
Pjotr Sauer @PjotrSauer
First clips coming out of Russia this morning of draftees saying bye to their families. This from a small town in Y… https://t.co/FJLbjbDt10
Rob Lee @RALee85
4191/ https://t.co/SNRiBvzrub — PolitiTweet.org
Francis Scarr @francis_scarr
In his International Women's Day address on 8 March, Putin insisted that no reservists would be called up to fight… https://t.co/IG3RR4mK1Z
Rob Lee @RALee85
@KT_So_It_Goes @mgerrydoyle The headcount is part of the problem. They don't have enough people to hold the line. I don't think this will solve Russia's issues, but, otherwise, many volunteers would not sign another contract and their manpower issues would become even worse. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@KT_So_It_Goes @mgerrydoyle I can foresee a variety of problems with this move, but, many of those currently fighting on behalf of Russian in Ukraine are poorly trained volunteers or mobilized men from the Donbas. So those problems already exist and they're at risk of losing more terrain if they do nothing. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
5/ https://t.co/vAYcWkQxr5 — PolitiTweet.org
Volodymyr Tretyak 🇺🇦 @VolodyaTretyak
Pro-#Russian channels are exploding after #Azovstaldefenders have been released from captivity https://t.co/d0dsCXwHw4
Rob Lee @RALee85
4/ https://t.co/wU3lGmApkL — PolitiTweet.org
Tadeusz Giczan @TadeuszGiczan
RBK-Ukraine says that Azovstal defenders were exchanged for Viktor Medvedchuk. In May, Peskov said explicitly that… https://t.co/S7GIGufNt9
Rob Lee @RALee85
3/ https://t.co/SgxJijEYRJ — PolitiTweet.org
Michael Colborne @ColborneMichael
@RALee85 RIM is thrilled as expected /s "A prisoner exchange isn't an exchange. It's surrender" https://t.co/zZGt362suV
Rob Lee @RALee85
A sample of some of the responses. 2/ https://t.co/4iEYH6HSSH — PolitiTweet.org
Necro Mancer @666_mancer
Ой, а шо случилось? Опять о глубинный народ ноги вытерли? Надо же, никогда такого не было, и вот опять… https://t.co/8GqF1rzr0f
Rob Lee @RALee85
Safe to say there will be many Russian Telegram channels and military bloggers who will not be happy about this swap. — PolitiTweet.org
Myroslava Petsa @myroslavapetsa
As part of prisoner exchange, Viktor Medvedchuk, Putin's right-hand man in Ukraine was swapped for Azovstal defende… https://t.co/mYfz4dsP7y
Rob Lee @RALee85
@adamnorth123 I don't think we'll see anything like 300k anytime soon, and it is possible Shoigu simply threw that number out without thinking. I wouldn't focus on that figure. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@biannagolodryga Not sure. Belarus doesn't have that many forces and they aren't that well trained. If Belarus commits them, then there is the added risk of protests in Belarus but with fewer security services to put them down. @konrad_muzyka and @TadeuszGiczan would know better than I. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@k_sonin I also think that, regardless of what their intent is, how it will be applied on the local level will vary considerably. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@k_sonin They need to make changes on the battlefield to prevent further Ukrainian advances, and it appears they've exhausted volunteers (even with pretty decent financial incentives). I think this might be intended as a partial step but it opens up further steps if it isn't enough. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
I think many conscripts will be deployed one way or the other. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Shoigu suggested that currently serving conscripts won't be deployed. But this suggests conscripts who are demobilized this fall can be mobilized immediately and deployed. I have a feeling the stipulations Shoigu and Putin mentioned today about who can be mobilized won't be kept. — PolitiTweet.org
Руслан Левиев @RuslanLeviev
А вот и подтверждение тому, что я сказал в сводке https://t.co/GvCvjPEQqI
Rob Lee @RALee85
One thing to keep in mind is that, regardless of what the intent of this stage of "partial" mobilization is, how it will be enacted at the local level will likely vary. This is particularly true if regions are given quotas. I doubt it will be conducted in a uniform manner. — PolitiTweet.org
Pjotr Sauer @PjotrSauer
While Shoigu said mobilised soldiers will receive weeks of training, local enlistment offices already state that th… https://t.co/wEIoReOIbd
Rob Lee @RALee85
RT @Capt_Navy: You have to be a very rich state to try to wage a modern war with bad troops.From the book “Strategy. The Art of Politics an… — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
RT @DAlperovitch: New @TwitterSpaces at 11am EDT/15:00 UTC on implication of Putin’s partial mobilization and nuclear threats. Join @Kofm… — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
TLDR: this step is likely designed to prevent a collapse of Russian lines before the spring, I suspect it will help in the short-term but not necessarily the long-term, Ukraine still has several advantages, relying on an involuntary force will create numerous problems. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Thread: 1) There are more unknowns than knowns at this point 2) It is one of the most significant/riskiest politica… https://t.co/IWqeEUnucO
Rob Lee @RALee85
The other important short-term effect is that there are criminal penalties for soldiers who refuse to fight. Considering that this was 20-40% of soldiers in some units, that isn't insignificant. But an involuntary fighting force won't have great long-term prospects. 10/ — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@loogunda Yeah, that was my thought, which is why I think they'll be deployed. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
If we’re only talking about Russia deploying reservists who were previously contract soldiers and not conscripts, that would narrow the number available. However, conscripts will likely face greater coercion to sign contracts to deploy regardless. 9/ — PolitiTweet.org
Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch
@RALee85 Went back to listen carefully again. Here is what he said: "Concerning conscripts - it won't impact them.… https://t.co/lH6lxoQHs8