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Rob Lee @RALee85

RT @WarintheFuture: Yesterday, I had the pleasure of joining the @CNASdc Brussels Sprouts team of ⁦@jteurope⁩ & @AKendallTaylor, along with… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 22, 2022 Retweet
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Rob Lee @RALee85

4197/ https://t.co/4OVEk3pjd3 — PolitiTweet.org

Ilya Lozovsky @ichbinilya

In Buratiya, male uni students are being taken straight out of classes. Some schools have closed and turned into en… https://t.co/G9zMUkgQy9

Posted Sept. 22, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

Of course, if this mobilization disproportionally affects certain poorer regions (whether by design or not), it is easy to foresee the serious political problems that will create. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 22, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

Many of these regions have already sustained heavy losses in this war (and have many refuseniks). A mobilization that focuses on recent veterans will also disproportionally affect regions where there are more military units because they will have the most veterans. — PolitiTweet.org

Bakhti Nishanov @b_nishanov

Everything I’ve seen on this mobilization so far points to Yakutia, Saha, Buryatia, Dagestan, Chechnya being mobili… https://t.co/fyNbWWl3gs

Posted Sept. 22, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

4196/ https://t.co/pf3EWf8YiD — PolitiTweet.org

Dasha Afanasieva @dasha_reports

More signs that the mobilization in Russia is far from partial. This 32-year old IT worked has been drafted despite… https://t.co/wSNk8ut8f0

Posted Sept. 22, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

4195/ https://t.co/4019zhQyeh — PolitiTweet.org

Evan Gershkovich @evangershkovich

protesters detained in Moscow tonight are reportedly getting drafted right at the police station

Posted Sept. 22, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

4194/ https://t.co/3dTG11V7ru — PolitiTweet.org

Felix Light @felix_light

KREMLIN, ASKED ABOUT REPORTS OF DETAINED ANTI-MOBILISATION PROTESTERS BEING GIVEN DRAFT PAPERS: 'THIS IS NOT AGAINST THE LAW' - Reuters

Posted Sept. 22, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

4193/ https://t.co/dDMTcjSgdm — PolitiTweet.org

Pjotr Sauer @PjotrSauer

Regional officials will be eager to show their loyalty to the Kremlin and mobilise as quickly and as widely as poss… https://t.co/2YgEp7hUU3

Posted Sept. 22, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

4192/ https://t.co/K4oRuUG1kn — PolitiTweet.org

Pjotr Sauer @PjotrSauer

First clips coming out of Russia this morning of draftees saying bye to their families. This from a small town in Y… https://t.co/FJLbjbDt10

Posted Sept. 22, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

4191/ https://t.co/SNRiBvzrub — PolitiTweet.org

Francis Scarr @francis_scarr

In his International Women's Day address on 8 March, Putin insisted that no reservists would be called up to fight… https://t.co/IG3RR4mK1Z

Posted Sept. 22, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

@KT_So_It_Goes @mgerrydoyle The headcount is part of the problem. They don't have enough people to hold the line. I don't think this will solve Russia's issues, but, otherwise, many volunteers would not sign another contract and their manpower issues would become even worse. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 21, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

@KT_So_It_Goes @mgerrydoyle I can foresee a variety of problems with this move, but, many of those currently fighting on behalf of Russian in Ukraine are poorly trained volunteers or mobilized men from the Donbas. So those problems already exist and they're at risk of losing more terrain if they do nothing. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 21, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

5/ https://t.co/vAYcWkQxr5 — PolitiTweet.org

Volodymyr Tretyak 🇺🇦 @VolodyaTretyak

Pro-#Russian channels are exploding after #Azovstaldefenders have been released from captivity https://t.co/d0dsCXwHw4

Posted Sept. 21, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

4/ https://t.co/wU3lGmApkL — PolitiTweet.org

Tadeusz Giczan @TadeuszGiczan

RBK-Ukraine says that Azovstal defenders were exchanged for Viktor Medvedchuk. In May, Peskov said explicitly that… https://t.co/S7GIGufNt9

Posted Sept. 21, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

3/ https://t.co/SgxJijEYRJ — PolitiTweet.org

Michael Colborne @ColborneMichael

@RALee85 RIM is thrilled as expected /s "A prisoner exchange isn't an exchange. It's surrender" https://t.co/zZGt362suV

Posted Sept. 21, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

A sample of some of the responses. 2/ https://t.co/4iEYH6HSSH — PolitiTweet.org

Necro Mancer @666_mancer

Ой, а шо случилось? Опять о глубинный народ ноги вытерли? Надо же, никогда такого не было, и вот опять… https://t.co/8GqF1rzr0f

Posted Sept. 21, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

Safe to say there will be many Russian Telegram channels and military bloggers who will not be happy about this swap. — PolitiTweet.org

Myroslava Petsa @myroslavapetsa

As part of prisoner exchange, Viktor Medvedchuk, Putin's right-hand man in Ukraine was swapped for Azovstal defende… https://t.co/mYfz4dsP7y

Posted Sept. 21, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

@adamnorth123 I don't think we'll see anything like 300k anytime soon, and it is possible Shoigu simply threw that number out without thinking. I wouldn't focus on that figure. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 21, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

@biannagolodryga Not sure. Belarus doesn't have that many forces and they aren't that well trained. If Belarus commits them, then there is the added risk of protests in Belarus but with fewer security services to put them down. @konrad_muzyka and @TadeuszGiczan would know better than I. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 21, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

@k_sonin I also think that, regardless of what their intent is, how it will be applied on the local level will vary considerably. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 21, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

@k_sonin They need to make changes on the battlefield to prevent further Ukrainian advances, and it appears they've exhausted volunteers (even with pretty decent financial incentives). I think this might be intended as a partial step but it opens up further steps if it isn't enough. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 21, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

I think many conscripts will be deployed one way or the other. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 21, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

Shoigu suggested that currently serving conscripts won't be deployed. But this suggests conscripts who are demobilized this fall can be mobilized immediately and deployed. I have a feeling the stipulations Shoigu and Putin mentioned today about who can be mobilized won't be kept. — PolitiTweet.org

Руслан Левиев @RuslanLeviev

А вот и подтверждение тому, что я сказал в сводке https://t.co/GvCvjPEQqI

Posted Sept. 21, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

One thing to keep in mind is that, regardless of what the intent of this stage of "partial" mobilization is, how it will be enacted at the local level will likely vary. This is particularly true if regions are given quotas. I doubt it will be conducted in a uniform manner. — PolitiTweet.org

Pjotr Sauer @PjotrSauer

While Shoigu said mobilised soldiers will receive weeks of training, local enlistment offices already state that th… https://t.co/wEIoReOIbd

Posted Sept. 21, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

RT @Capt_Navy: You have to be a very rich state to try to wage a modern war with bad troops.From the book “Strategy. The Art of Politics an… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 21, 2022 Retweet
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Rob Lee @RALee85

RT @DAlperovitch: New @TwitterSpaces at 11am EDT/15:00 UTC on implication of Putin’s partial mobilization and nuclear threats. Join @Kofm… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 21, 2022 Retweet
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Rob Lee @RALee85

TLDR: this step is likely designed to prevent a collapse of Russian lines before the spring, I suspect it will help in the short-term but not necessarily the long-term, Ukraine still has several advantages, relying on an involuntary force will create numerous problems. — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Lee @RALee85

Thread: 1) There are more unknowns than knowns at this point 2) It is one of the most significant/riskiest politica… https://t.co/IWqeEUnucO

Posted Sept. 21, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

The other important short-term effect is that there are criminal penalties for soldiers who refuse to fight. Considering that this was 20-40% of soldiers in some units, that isn't insignificant. But an involuntary fighting force won't have great long-term prospects. 10/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 21, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

@loogunda Yeah, that was my thought, which is why I think they'll be deployed. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 21, 2022
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Rob Lee @RALee85

If we’re only talking about Russia deploying reservists who were previously contract soldiers and not conscripts, that would narrow the number available. However, conscripts will likely face greater coercion to sign contracts to deploy regardless. 9/ — PolitiTweet.org

Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch

@RALee85 Went back to listen carefully again. Here is what he said: "Concerning conscripts - it won't impact them.… https://t.co/lH6lxoQHs8

Posted Sept. 21, 2022