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Rob Lee @RALee85
@PlameniOganj Russia has suffered greater losses throughout the entire battle, but the ratio has shifted over the past month. Understandable that Ukraine will fight tenaciously to defend all of its territory. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
There are valid arguments for why Ukraine should continue to defend Bakhmut, but this is not one of them. https://t.co/TmegBLaaF5 — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
1: Bakhmut is no longer a good place to attrit Russian forces 2: The attrition ratio became worse once Russia seized the northern flank in mid/late-Feb 3: The attrition ratio in Bakhmut is worse than elsewhere 4: The % of Russian casualties from elite units is higher elsewhere https://t.co/slQUgaZ3Wd — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
In contrast, the lessons from Syria were widely discussed and better integrated, but that conflict obviously was of less relevance to the current war than the 2014-2015 fighting in the Donbas. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
One side effect of the Russian government's denial of the role played by the Russian military in the Donbas since 2014 is that it hindered the institutionalization of lessons learned from the war. Russian officers and analysts couldn't discuss lessons publicly. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Tatarsky and Starshe Eddy say that thousands of Russian military officers deployed to the Donbas since October 2014… https://t.co/eNlWneVkXY
Rob Lee @RALee85
They complain that Russian brigade commanders don't understand the importance of FPV kamikaze UAVs. Kharchenko says FPV drone pilots need far more training than for other UAVs and need a training program. https://t.co/Pr1TRn1XIB https://t.co/QE4ue8aFQI https://t.co/1GfGhC6S3q https://t.co/NE4z8qcZb8 — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
They complain that the Russian military did not learn lessons about the Ukrainian military's development and the importance of UAVs. Tatarsky says Ukrainian forces knocked out 3 BMP in April 2020 with RKG-3 grenades dropped by UAVs. https://t.co/3ul3tRjBez https://t.co/97Ws8d6UrL https://t.co/KunmbshDgW — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Tatarsky and Starshe Eddy say that thousands of Russian military officers deployed to the Donbas since October 2014, holding battalion and higher command positions in the LDNR army corps, but they weren't seeing combat and didn't institutionalize lessons. https://t.co/gbEBFZSB0b https://t.co/McjOn7Bvvc — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
RT @Tatarigami_UA: 🧵Thread 1/ In my previous analysis, I explored the armament and role of assault units. However, their actual effectivene… — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@StankoNastya @HromadskeUA Thank you for the great reporting. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
I've learned a lot from these great video reports from @StankoNastya and the @HromadskeUA team. Their YouTube channel is a great resource. — PolitiTweet.org
Nastya Stanko @StankoNastya
1 mln views of our report from #Bakhmut with @93OMBr1. Guys are still in the city. Hard days https://t.co/Hdtq5USWEI
Rob Lee @RALee85
Video of an improvised FPV loitering munition strike on a Russian TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS by Ukrainian SBU Alpha. https://t.co/lefp9YNFEt https://t.co/LNkIj1Ptqo — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
Captured Russian T-80BV, T-80U, and T-80UK tanks in Ukrainian service in the Donbas from last week. https://t.co/KTXG7efzt4 — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
In a letter sent to the EU, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said Ukraine is firing an average of 110,000 155mm artillery rounds per month (1/4 of what Russia is firing) and is asking for 250,000 rounds per month from the EU. https://t.co/zTFa7BTNNL https://t.co/e3DRtJO5WD — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@CalibreObscura More can be done and it would have a tangible effect on the battlefield. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
In Bakhmut, Vuhledar, and other key battles right now, Russia is firing several times more rounds per day. Without that advantage, Russia's offensive potential would be significantly degraded. Investments in production capacity now could be critical for Ukraine in 2024-2025. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@andreastzav Yes, but ammunition is the bigger issue. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
The single most important thing the EU can do to support Ukraine is to produce more artillery rounds. More artillery rounds will give Ukraine a better chance at achieving a breakthrough in its future offensives and to reduce Russia's advantages in an attritional fight. — PolitiTweet.org
Steven Erlanger @StevenErlanger
Ukraine is on an artillery shell diet, but still is firing more rounds than the West can produce. The EU, proposing… https://t.co/hb3n1RT2AV
Rob Lee @RALee85
The single most important thing the EU can do to support Ukraine is to produce more artillery rounds. More artillery rounds will give Ukraine a better chance at achieving a breakthrough in its future offensives and to reduce Russia's advantages in an attritional fight. — PolitiTweet.org
Steven Erlanger @StevenErlanger
Ukraine is on an artillery shell diet, but still is firing more rounds than the West can produce. The EU, proposing… https://t.co/hb3n1RT2AV
Rob Lee @RALee85
@secretsqrl123 "could affect" is not the same as "sending everything it can to Bakhmut", which is what you said. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@secretsqrl123 There are no naval infantry brigades in Bakhmut. The vast majority of the VDV is not in Bakhmut. You said "most of Russia's professional troops" were there or being sent there. These are factually inaccurate claims that take a few minutes to verify. Yes, you're doing it wrong. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@secretsqrl123 Units on the front lines in Siversk or Horlivka, which are within 20 miles, are not part of the battle for Bakhmut. You said "Russia is sending everything it can to Bakhmut" and now you're counting units that *could* be sent. These are not the same thing. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@secretsqrl123 You defined major units as brigades or regiments. 20 miles includes Siversk, and it makes no sense to treat units based there as part of Russia's offensive in Bakhmut. What is your source for the 40/155th Naval Infantry Brigades in Bakhmut or the 74 Ukrainian brigades in reserve? — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@greygossling The “Russia is winning/losing” takes lack nuance. Russia is making some slow costly gains but Ukraine will go back on the offensive this spring with better prospects of achieving a significant breakthrough. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@SpockNC @J_JHelin That would be more accurate. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@TolmachovVasily @KofmanMichael Will write something about this later. Different Wagner commanders operate differently. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@adropboxspace The line brigades have mobilized soldiers. — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@adropboxspace https://t.co/7PQrDJaLOo — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@Viktor10600283 @KofmanMichael The article literally quotes a Ukrainian battalion commander fighting in Bakhmut. Do you think you know his attrition figures better than he does? — PolitiTweet.org
Rob Lee @RALee85
@adropboxspace The 93rd is currently fighting in Bakhmut, and there are no TDF brigades there. — PolitiTweet.org
