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Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
While we're taught to think of warming as “global” or even concentrated in the hottest parts of the world, it is in fact concentrated in the coldest parts of the world during the coldest times. That makes warming less disruptive and in many cases beneficial. Especially since… https://t.co/vkMwjQ1npl — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
Undeniable climate fact 3: Warming from CO2 occurs more in colder places The mainstream view in climate science is that more warming will be concentrated in colder places (Northern latitudes) and at colder times (nighttime) and during colder seasons (winter). This is good news. https://t.co/GGALfrzRZj — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
We could drastically reduce temperature-related mortality if more of the people who currently use very little energy became empowered with fossil fuels ASAP. Depriving the poor of fossil fuels would cause countless temp-related deaths in the future. — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
More warming for the foreseeable future is expected to reduce temperature-related mortality on its own. If we factor in the massive temperature mastery benefits that fossil fuels provide we are incomparably better off temp-wise with fossil fuels than without them. — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
Undeniable climate fact 2: Deaths from cold far exceed deaths from heat While leading institutions portray a world as increasingly riddled with heat-related death, the fact is that even though Earth has gotten 1°C warmer far more people die from cold than heat (even in India!). — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
CO2 emissions have also driven significant greening of the planet over the last 170 years, including during this recent 33-year period documented by NASA. This combined with 1° C warming is not remotely catastrophic and is in many ways beneficial. As for future warming...👇 https://t.co/RguxnZXg2T — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
Undeniable climate fact 1: CO2 emissions correlate with 1°C warming, + greening Fossil fuels' CO2 emissions have contributed to the warming of the last 170 years, but that warming has been mild and manageable—1° C. Here's what that looks like compared to normal temp changes. https://t.co/ud6qV7DImT — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
5 undeniable facts about FFs’ climate side-effects 1. CO2 emissions correlate with 1°C warming, + greening 2. Deaths from cold > deaths from heat 3. CO2 warming occurs more in colder places 4. CO2 warming diminishes as levels rise 5. Even IPCC extreme projections are masterable — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
Climate mastery is so powerful that for CO2 emissions to be apocalyptic enough to justify rapid FF restriction, let alone elimination, they'd need to have unprecedented impacts like: * Seas rising ft per decade * Storms becoming 2X more powerful Science shows nothing like this. — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
Given that fossil fuels give us such amazing mastery over massive natural climate danger, they can give us the same mastery over any manmade climate danger from FFs’ CO2 emissions. E.g., if FFs increased drought 10% they could overwhelm that via irrigation and crop transport. — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
Undeniable energy fact 5: Fossil fuel energy gives us an incredible climate mastery ability FF have helped drive down climate disaster deaths by *98%* over the last century by powering the amazing machines that protect us against storms, extreme temperatures, and drought. https://t.co/6rvgAeaxw3 — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
Those of us who recognize the benefits of fossil fuels should be *open to* evidence of extremely negative climate side-effects of FFs. But once we learn certain undeniable facts about FFs’ climate benefits and side-effects the idea of climate apocalypse is totally refuted. 👇 — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
The life-or-death benefits of fossil fuels to the ability of 8B people to flourish are true regardless of how severe the negative climate side-effects of FFs are. Those who think FFs’ CO2 emissions are apocalyptic still should acknowledge that rapid FF elimination is apocalyptic. — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
Bottom line: If we recognize the undeniable facts about energy, we must conclude that if 8B people are going to have the cost-effective energy they need to flourish, in the far greater quantities needed, fossil fuel use needs to increase. Rapidly restricting it is deadly, period. — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
All academic schemes to replace FFs with mostly solar/wind share 3 absurd assumptions: 1) schemes never tried anywhere will cheaply work everywhere the 1st time 2) a crash program of unprecedented mining will be cheap 3) today’s anti-development politics won’t slow anything down — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
Unfortunately, there are opportunistic anti-fossil-fuel activist academics who have been feeding the absurd fantasy of rapid global replacement of FFs via unreliable solar and wind. These academics are squarely responsible for today’s global crisis of insufficient FF supply. — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
For solar/wind to rapidly replace fossil fuels would require magically, immediately fixing their intractable problems providing electricity, then providing the 4/5 of world energy that isn’t electricity, then doing that for the world’s far greater energy needs going forward. — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
The popular idea that we can use mostly or all solar/wind with sufficient battery backup is not being tried anywhere because it’s economically absurd. Batteries are so expensive that just 3 days of global backup using @elonmusk’s Megapacks would cost $400T, >4X global GDP. — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
Solar and wind’s basic problem is unreliability, to the point they can go near-0 at any time. Thus they don’t replace reliable power, they parasite on it. This is why they need huge subsidies and why no grid is near 50% solar/wind without huge parasitism on reliable neighbors. — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
Undeniable energy fact 4: Unreliable solar/wind are failing to replace FFs Despite claims that solar + wind are rapidly replacing FFs, they provide < 5% of world energy—only electricity, ⅕ of energy—and even that depends on huge subsidies and reliable (mostly FF) power plants. — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
Recent price spikes in fossil fuels do not reflect some new lack of cost-effectiveness on the part of FFs, but rather the devastating effects of “green energy” efforts to artificially restrict the supply of FFs on the false promise that unreliable solar/wind can replace them. — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
There is currently only one energy tech that can match (actually exceed) fossil fuels’ combo of naturally stored, concentrated, abundant energy: nuclear. Nuclear may one day outcompete all uses of FFs, but this will take radical policy reform and generations of innovation + work. — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
Fossil fuels are uniquely able to provide energy that's low-cost, reliable, and versatile on a scale of billions of people. This is due to FFs' combo of remarkable attributes—FFs are naturally stored, concentrated, and abundant energy—and generations of innovation by industry. — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
Undeniable energy fact 3: Fossil fuels are uniquely cost-effective Despite 100+ years of aggressive competition, fossil fuels provide 80%+ of the world’s energy and they are still growing fast—especially in the countries most concerned with cost-effective energy. E.g., China. — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
The desperate lack of life-giving, cost-effective energy means that any replacement for fossil fuels must not only provide energy to the 2B who use significant amounts of energy today but to the 6B who use far less. Restricting FFs without incredible alternatives is mass murder. — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
Undeniable energy fact 2: The world needs much more energy Billions of people lack the cost-effective energy they need to flourish. 3B use less electricity than a typical American refrigerator. 1/3 of the world uses wood/dung for heating/cooking. *Much more* energy is needed. https://t.co/wu8e5xycvB — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
Thanks to today’s unprecedented availability of cost-effective energy (mostly fossil fuel) the world has never been a better place for human life. Life expectancy and income have been skyrocketing, with extreme poverty (<$2/day) plummeting from 42% in 1980 to <10% today. https://t.co/9wnxQh1GeK — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
Undeniable energy fact 1: Cost-effective energy is essential to human flourishing Cost-effective energy—affordable, reliable, versatile, scalable energy—is essential to human flourishing because gives us the ability to use machines to become productive and prosperous. — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
5 undeniable facts about fossil fuels’ benefits 1. Human flourishing requires cost-effective energy 2. Far more energy is needed 3. FFs are uniquely cost-effective 4. Unreliable solar and wind are failing to replace FFs 5. FFs give us an incredible climate mastery ability — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
If you follow my 3 irrefutable principles for thinking about fossil fuels—factoring in fossil fuels’ 1) benefits, 2) climate mastery benefits, and 3) precise negative and positive climate side-effects—the facts show that we need a Fossil Future. Consider 10 undeniable facts 👇 — PolitiTweet.org
