Seth Abramson

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

UPDATE/ We’re now getting a clearer picture of tonight’s FBI search. CNN reports that "Earlier this year, 15 boxes of White House records that Trump had brought to Mar-a-Lago were retrieved and returned to the National Archives." The FBI—via subpoena—reviewed *those* documents... — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

RT @AshaRangappa_: Yeah all 3rd world Marxist dictatorships are constrained by the Fourth Amendment and review of the exercise of executive… — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

RT @kaitlancollins: Investigators asked to see where docs were stored. Trump's attorneys took them to a basement room and they looked aroun… — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

RT @kaitlancollins: News — In early June, investigators made a rare visit to Mar-a-Lago seeking more info about material taken from the Whi… — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

NYT/ “These boxes [of government documents] were supposed to have been returned [to the National Archives]. The fact that this [FBI search] happened this way indicates [the materials] were not entirely returned.” For what it’s worth, that’s what Haberman (NYT) is saying on CNN. — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

CLARIFICATION 3/ It is *very* hard to imagine the “middle” scenario (as it were): Trump and the National Archives have reached an amiable resolution on the returning of the boxes but a hyper-cautious Merrick Garland chooses to a raid an ex-POTUS’s home anyway. No, I don’t see it. — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

CLARIFICATION 2/ If Trump still had the boxes and there was *no agreement* with the National Archives to return them, it’s certainly possible the raid was prompted as much by the *duration* of the possession—possibly indicating willfulness—as much as the content of the documents. — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

CLARIFICATION/ It’s not clear where the 15 boxes are, though CNN implies they were still at Mar-a-Lago and were taken out of the building by the FBI—so I don’t know what the reporting I saw on the boxes being “returned” was about. Was there a tentative *agreement* to return them? — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

RT @SethAbramson: MAJOR BREAKING NEWS: FBI Raids Former President Donald Trump’s Home — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

THE BASICS 6/ So while of course we don’t know the details of this warrant, I’d be very (*very*) surprised if this search had not been prompted—given that the 15 boxes Trump took were returned—by some larger sphere of concern at DOJ beyond just locating random missing documents. — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

THE BASICS 5/ Keep in mind that when Trump took classified documents from the White House, it was after January 6—so there is every reason to worry that he was absconding with potential evidence of his crimes (recall that his very favorite federal crime to commit is Obstruction). — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

BREAKING NEWS/ CNN reports that (a) the FBI focused on searching Trump’s “offices and personal quarters,” and (b) Trump released a lengthy statement about the search (which might otherwise not have been reported for some time) because he wants a “political bump” from this event. — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

THE BASICS 4/ Though it shouldn’t be this way and no one should defend it being this way, it *is* this way—the bar for a search warrant of an ex-POTUS is far higher than the usual probable cause we expect for a civilian, so the FBI had to have thought this through very carefully. — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

THE BASICS 3/ Trump is said to have returned the boxes he took with him to Mar-a-Lago, so the fact that a search occurred means either the FBI thinks not everything was returned, thinks documents were destroyed, or thinks the initial taking of the classified docs was intentional. — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

THE BASICS 2/ [continued]: 3⃣ The FBI can only search places inside the building where the evidence listed in the search warrant *reasonably* might be found, though if (e.g.) the evidence is “classified documents” it means the FBI can search virtually anywhere inside Mar-a-Lago — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

THE BASICS/ In case you’re confused about the basics of a search: 1⃣ Only occurs if the FBI has probable cause to believe a federal crime was occurred *and* a judge agrees; 2⃣ Any incriminating evidence the FBI finds can be used by DOJ, even if it’s about a different crime; — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

RT @SethAbramson: MAJOR BREAKING NEWS: FBI Raids Former President Donald Trump’s Home — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

MORE8/ Trump has spent a lifetime equally convinced he’ll never face any form of justice he can’t buy/influence/talk his way out of and that at some point his actions will catch up to him. So many of his actions and so much of his rhetoric is measured in preparation for that day. — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

MORE7/ Trump doesn’t email, has a large number of phones, often uses the phones of trusted others for his most important calls, habitually destroys printed records of his conduct, hides documents and assets, uses his lawyers to hold conference calls that may be criminal and more. — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

MORE6/ I’d add that as the criminal investigation of Trump continues, Americans will learn a lot about the many methods Trump has been using for decades to hide his crimes. These are techniques any reader of the Proof trilogy is well aware of—but many Americans will be surprised. — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

MORE5/ Because I value rule of law and keeping politics out of the criminal justice system across the board, when I say that this FBI search could have implications for the 2022 elections—*if* it compels Trump to announce a POTUS run early—I’m saying it as a political journalist. — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

MORE4/ Keep in mind that regardless of the basis for this FBI search, it will have *unsettled* Trump and increased his consciousness of a possible future indictment. What does that mean? It means his timeline for declaring a presidential run has been moved up. Possibly *way* up. — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

NYT/ “The search—according to two people familiar with the investigation—appeared to be focused on material Trump had brought with him to Mar-a-Lago after he left the White House. Those boxes contained many pages of classified documents per a person familiar with their contents.” — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

MORE3/ ...whether Trump would attempt to incite chaos and mayhem if he ever faced accountability for his many decades of crime—not that I think many readers of this feed ever doubted that—here’s your evidence that Trump *does* intend to see America burn if it ever displeases him. — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

MORE2/ Trump is now calling the search of his Florida home an “assault,” “political,” “[proof] that the United States is a third-world country now,” and evidence of corruption within the FBI because (he says) Hillary Clinton was treated better than him. If you ever doubted... — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

MORE/ Trump now says, “They even broke into my safe.” (To be perfectly clear, this is, like, the *very first thing* you would expect the FBI to do, but it’s still some excellent color on this developing news story.) — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

RT @SethAbramson: MAJOR BREAKING NEWS: FBI Raids Former President Donald Trump’s Home — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

NOTE10/ To be clear, that day isn’t today and I’ve no idea if it’s even coming soon. But I do think all Americans—whatever their feelings about Trump—need to acclimate themselves to the notion that *at some point or another* former president Donald Trump is going to be arrested. — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

NOTE9/ I’ve no doubt that many trolls will have a field day laughing at the notion Trump will ever be indicted. But those of us who’ve been researching and publishing journalism on him for years have always believed that day would eventually come. We’ve simply never known *when*. — PolitiTweet.org

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

NOTE8/ I’m hopeful that the FBI being thoughtful to this degree about basic logistics extends to what I wrote a moment ago about non-intrusively tracking Trump’s movements—and making some hard decisions should he attempt to travel to Russia or any nation without U.S. extradition. — PolitiTweet.org