David Gauke

David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Sime0nStylites Although I'm not sure many Leavers will change their minds in the next few months - they'll put difficulties down to teething problems or European unreasonableness. But if there's no evidence of Brexit bringing positive change by 2024, that'll be a big problem for the Government. — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Sime0nStylites ...Brexit almost certainly won't deliver the change that many Leave voters hoped for. Add to that the reality that Leave voters are a shrinking demographic. So I'd argue that there is an opportunity to rebuild a sensible relationship with the EU. — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Sime0nStylites ... there's a risk of fragmentation (if Farage's betrayal narrative takes off), it's a hard coalition to hold together if public attention moves on & the ambitions of some in the ERG ('Singapore-on-Thames') not well aligned with the values of Red Wall voters. Plus... — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Sime0nStylites Our minds have been addressing similar issues - at least in terms of the future battle. To use the old terminology, the Leavers have 2 structural advantages. Their votes are better distributed & not fragmented. Hence 2019 GE result. But... — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

So even if a deal is reached (not inevitable), we move on to a debate about re-orientating ourselves away from the EU versus a closer, more aligned relationship. Wrangling about our relationship with the EU won't end. Merry Christmas! /END — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

Meanwhile, many of us will point out that, even with a deal, it is very thin. Much more friction in our EU trade. On rules of origin or services, say, nothing there. The focus on sovereignty has meant we haven't got the comprehensive deal we needed. /7 — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

Many Brexiteers don't just want to leave the EU institutions but also re-orientate the country towards the rest of the world & a different economic model. Johnson will be able to say that this deal enables us to do that in future. /6 — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

But he must think he can still sell a deal to sceptical backbenchers. Why? Less pressure to abandon Covid restrictions (surely not credible to argue against them at this point), not much time for scrutiny plus, maybe, the prospect of a US mini-deal which his MPs would love. /5 — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

The question has always been whether the PM really wanted a deal. No one could've predicted with great confidence because it's not clear that the PM knew himself. It now looks like he's decided he wants a deal but he's left it very late. Things can still go wrong. /4 — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

And the argument that zero tariffs/quotas being dependent on complying with certain conditions is an attack on sovereignty is also nonsense. You could never sign any trade deal or be a member of the WTO if that was the case. How you use your sovereignty still has consequences. /3 — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

Johnson has clearly moved on LPF (see Lord Frost's July tweet) . Obvious nonsense to argue that the threat of tariffs & quotas in future is an economic risk we cannot accept but tariffs & quotas now would be 'wonderful' & 'we'd prosper mightily'. /2 https://t.co/aOAiKlmfyB — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

My @ConHome piece on the Brexit talks. I've long thought that the risk of no deal was under-priced because the concessions necessary to get a deal would be politically risky for Boris Johnson. But at this point a deal is more likely than not. /1 https://t.co/CKYRIXjMm8 — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

RT @ConHome: From @DavidGauke: Whether there’s a deal or not, Brexit will still not be done https://t.co/gx9lKuErRD — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

RT @SamuelMarcLowe: @AllieRenison People seem slightly surprised when you tell them that around half the fishing industry (the less effecti… — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

THEN “The EU is a protectionist racket and really rubbish at agreeing free trade deals with emerging economies.” NOW “Look at how many rollover deals we’ve signed with emerging economies!” — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Ruritanian @AnneliHoward @GeorgePeretzQC Many congratulations! — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

RT @Sime0nStylites: @DavidGauke Or huge queues at Dover. Or mountains of extra red tape. Or dogs chasing cats. — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

Case numbers have deteriorated significantly in recent days. But the risks of Christmas being a super spreader event could have been anticipated some time ago. — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

This is fabulous. — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

RT @DavidHenigUK: Quite. Looks like the UK conceding on level playing field will join those already on state aid (we think) and Northern Ir… — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

RT @cjayanetti: Oh really, @AndyBurnhamGM? Let's take a look.... 👇 — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

Big challenges in doing this but it will be important to get the vaccine out quickly. We don't need to reinvent the wheel, get local authorities to help by using the model that works in elections. /END — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

It wouldn’t get everyone vaccinated but it might be a way of getting lots done. A real national moment, making it a social norm to get the jab, relieving pressure on the NHS, making use of tried & tested infrastructure plus a process familiar to the public. /8 — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

The equivalent of polling cards could be distributed, providing information (‘wear a short sleeved top’) & link to a simple online booking system. Run the event for 3 days in mid-February, repeat for the 2nd dose in mid-March. /7 — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

Each vaccination station would need someone medically trained to stick in the needle (including some retirees?) but that person could be supported by the people who regularly work in polling stations who could check identity, mark off a list, provide instructions etc. /6 — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

On a regular basis, we give people the opportunity to turn up at a local venue to perform a relatively simple task. Millions do it over 15 hours across the country without much of a problem. They’re called elections & run by local authorities. /5 — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

The NHS will be under great pressure in early 2021, even without trying to run a mass vaccination campaign. But there’s another part of the state that could do much of the hard work – with the infrastructure already in place. /4 — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

Could be a tough dilemma by early spring. The best of both worlds would be to get the vaccine out to the general population very quickly. Assuming the Oxford vaccine gets the OK, we should have to doses but still a huge logistical task to get lots of people injected. /3 — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

We might get there quite quickly & lots will argue that we should lift all the restrictions asap. But the vaccine won’t have 100% efficacy – so some of the vaccinated may still die - & although the IFR will be low for the rest, if many get it a fair few will die. /2 — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

A thought or two on the vaccine roll out. One piece of very good news is that we don’t have to vaccinate that many people before the deaths start coming down. As @harrytlambert suggests, vaccinate 75+s (9% of the population) & fatalities cut by 71%. /1 https://t.co/yfnuJQEH81 — PolitiTweet.org