Sahil Kapur

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

@MeetThePress @NBCNews @VP Great to join you! Until next time. -30- — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

@MeetThePress @NBCNews @VP BUT we've seen this movie before. Once the dust settles Rs tend to fall back in his corner. Big Q is whether GOP base voters start to peel away from DJT. If the dam breaks, that'll be why. Otherwise this movie will have the same ending. He's still the GOP 2024 front-runner. 2/2 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

@MeetThePress @NBCNews @VP Privately, many of them blame Trump for the GOP's disastrous 2022 showing. Publicly, they're reticent to criticize him (a familiar theme). But his recent white supremacist dinner and recent call for "terminating" constitutional provisions has made some more vocal lately. 1/2 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

@MeetThePress @NBCNews @VP So why did they split that way? Candidate quality is a big reason. Kemp crafted an independent brand, aided by his rejection of Trump's fabricated claims of a stolen 2020 election. Warnock also built a unique brand and reached out to independent/swing voters. 3/3 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

@MeetThePress @NBCNews @VP Second, in Georgia, ticket-splitters were most evident in the vote-rich Atlanta metro area. Well-educated suburbs around Cobb and Gwinnett counties, which Rs used to dominate but have trended Dem. The data show lots of voters there went Kemp-Warnock. 2/3 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

@MeetThePress @NBCNews @VP First, ticket-splitters were a major theme of the 2022 election. We started seeing signs of them months ago and they persisted into the fall. Here's an early story we did about the importance of ticket-splitters in Georgia and elsewhere: https://t.co/1nCiplFdJ4 1/2 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

@MeetThePress @NBCNews @VP That said, the practical impact on 51 vs. 50 the legislative front is minimal given that Republicans have won control of the House and there's still a 60-vote threshold in the Senate for most bills. But noms need 50+1 so Dems can lose Manchin or another vote and still win. 2/2 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

@MeetThePress @NBCNews 1, Fewer tie-breaking votes by @VP. 2, No more 50-50 power-sharing accord; Dems take a clear majority on all committees, which means faster processing of judges and nominees, fewer hoops to jump through. 3, Various Dem committee chairs have subpoena power w/o needing R buy-in 1/2 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

@MeetThePress @NBCNews And here's his deputy campaign manager. Note the "permission structure" point and how they went about it. Their strategy worked and now they're taking a victory lap. https://t.co/NKTLugb1wq 2/2 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

@MeetThePress @NBCNews Both said the victory validates their strategy to focus heavily on crossover voters — picture center-right suburban voters who have long supported Rs but were iffy on Walker and the direction of the GOP today; who aren't Dems but open to the right one. https://t.co/V5Q7aBMnv2 1/2 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

@MeetThePress @NBCNews Apart from a louder megaphone, what exactly that'll mean is unclear, but for a Dem to have this kind of electoral success in a tough state inevitably will mean questions about higher ambitions. I asked his campaign manager that here. Read his response: https://t.co/zoT2L0ePqj 2/2 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

@MeetThePress @NBCNews For starters, it means Warnock has a six-year Senate term, safe through 2028. More broadly, his four general election victories — in a state like Georgia, in two very different political landscapes — have undoubtedly elevated his star within the Democratic Party. 1/2 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

@MeetThePress @NBCNews Hello! It's great to be back to #TweetThePress after my last (and for now, final) stint in Georgia to cover the Senate runoff. — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

RT @MeetThePress: If it’s Thursday, it’s #TweetThePress! Today, we’re taking a look at the results of the Georgia Senate runoff. @NBCNews… — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

@therecount @BarneyFrank This quote was from a separate interview FWIW — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

Former Rep. @BarneyFrank, the first openly gay member of Congress, is in the Capitol for the Respect For Marriage Act. “I was here for the birth of DOMA. And this is one case when the funeral is a much happier occasion,” he says. — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

NEWS: House passes legislation to protect same-sex marriage The vote is 258-169 Senate passed this last week 61-36 Next stop: Biden's desk for enactment https://t.co/tjLs06PPGs — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

RT @kyledcheney: I can’t emphasize enough: There is zero substantive value to criminal referrals from the Jan. 6 committee. If they release… — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

RT @MichaelRWear: “There could have been other campaign operatives or another campaign that could have said, ‘OK, Herschel Walker has all t… — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

Anecdote on @ReverendWarnock: In fall 2020, one of the last times I interviewed the late Harry Reid, he predicted a Senate blowout of 6-7 Dem flips. Warnock didn’t make the cut. So skeptical were Ds given his tough special election situation. Several Reid predictions lost; he won — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

@JolineMaza that's fair, but needs to factor in 2018. blue wave year, Kemp's image wasn't what it is now. a more pro-Dem environment than 2020 and 2022, when Warnock won. — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

October story on Warnock and Abrams pursuing divergent strategies: https://t.co/nJU6rvuM3y — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

Two things can be true: (1) Abrams is an effective organizer who pulled new D-leaning voters into the Georgia electorate (2) Her theory of relying on Dem/liberal/new voters to win was wrong. Dems need crossover voters to win in GA; Warnock proves that, and shows it can be done — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

MAINZ, Germany — Authorities in Germany arrested 25 people on Wednesday who are suspected of planning to violently overthrow the government in a far-right extremist plot. from @ameckardt @psmith: https://t.co/RB7R4kC5ks — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

Great visual on how the Georgia vote shifted between the 11/8 election and 12/6 runoff. Walker improved in rural north Georgia, especially in Marjorie Taylor Greene's district. Warnock did better in 77 counties, including the vote-rich metro Atlanta. https://t.co/QqJnOmk571 https://t.co/ujXqJKyzJu — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

RT @ConnieSchultz: @brent_peabody We’re keeping the curls. https://t.co/DJJ0xmg8KW — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

“Herschel was like a plane crash into a train wreck that rolled into a dumpster fire. And an orphanage. Then an animal shelter. You kind of had to watch it squinting through one eye between your fingers.” —Dan McLagan, adviser to GA Ag Commish Gary Black https://t.co/YzasqIhRgS — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

@HarrisPeskin wouldn’t be surprised if Dems do better in TX than in FL — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

Final margin in Henry County: Warnock wins by 32.4 points. That’s a 68-point swing from red to blue since 2000. https://t.co/gqtfD5C8Q4 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

Coming up in 2024: A brutal Senate map for Democrats. They will be defending seats in three red states (WV, MT, OH)… …and in five purple states (PA, MI, WI, AZ, NV)… …while their best pickup opportunity is FL, where Dems have self-destructed. https://t.co/vJRWXboP6i https://t.co/WdpeNJuf89 — PolitiTweet.org