Sahil Kapur

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

More Newsday/Siena poll of NY03 • 75% say Santos cannot be effective • 71% say McCarthy was wrong to put Santos on committees • Santos voters say 63-31% they wouldn’t have voted for him if they knew what they know now Crosstabs: https://t.co/4VE5u55i61 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

Newsday/Siena College poll of New York’s 3rd congressional district: • 78% of registered voters say George Santos should resign That includes 89% of Democrats, 71% of Republicans, 72% of independents • 13% say he shouldn’t resign • 9% say they don’t know/no opinion — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

A federal policing bill is back on the radar after graphic videos of Memphis officers fatally beating Tyre Nichols. But is there a path, after Senate talks failed in 2021 and GOP running the House? Graham: "You never know until you try." w/ @scottwongDC https://t.co/30uTWoWOOq — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

New: Senators aim to revive police reform talks but face major hurdles DURBIN & GRAHAM are talking Durbin: "I want to rekindle this conversation" Graham is game but calls it "probably less likely" than 2021, when it failed Top House Rs are skeptical https://t.co/30uTWoWOOq — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) on running for Manchin’s Senate seat in 2024: “I’ve given a lot of thought and I’m still very, very, very seriously considering it. In fact I’m probably leaning that way and you’ll hear an announcement real soon. I’m not one to tease people.” — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

@DanMartinTalks Govs are a diff dynamic. Kansas/KY have a Dem. NH/VA have a R. Etc. I tend to see NC as the D version of NV. Often competitive, they can get close but rarely ever crack it — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, asked about Joe Manchin’s potential 2024 re-election bid: “I always support Joe Manchin.” She doesn’t, however, answer when asked if he’s made a decision on her own re-election plans in Arizona. — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

There's pessimism about passing major legislation in this new divided government, but Senate Judiciary will be a committee to watch on Biden's judicial legacy. He currently has 97 Senate-confirmed judges. Durbin tells me it's "definitely realistic" to top 200 this Congress. — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

The Senate Judiciary Committee ratio has yet to be announced but the expectation (per Durbin and Cornyn) is they eliminate the GOP seat that was held by Sasse. Welch replaces Leahy; others stay put. That'd give Democrats a +1 majority. This panel oversees judicial nominees. — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

@DanMartinTalks true but Ds haven't won a federal statewide in NC since '08; they've now won GA in successive cycles — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

Interesting long-term question here for the DNC. Georgia is a purple island surrounded by (lately, at least) a sea of red and was indispensable to the Democratic trifecta in 2020. Warnock's win in 2022 suggests it was not a fluke. — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

The fairy tales some Trump-skeptical Republicans tell themselves is just 🤯 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

The greatest entry in the genre: a couple of Democratic consultants informing Obama in 2011 that he cannot win and must abandon re-election to make way for the unstoppable force that is Hillary Clinton https://t.co/yIgyxIeAsA — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

For House Republicans, 2011 is a guidepost on using the debt limit as leverage under a Democratic president. But to Biden, it was a miserable experience and a mistake that doesn't want to repeat. — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

The story of a formative 2011 Oval Office meeting featuring President Obama, Vice President Biden and top White House aides — and how it shaped @JoeBiden's red line today on the debt limit. Biden meets Wednesday with @SpeakerMcCarthy. That and more reporting on @Morning_Joe: https://t.co/VOANesSDpP — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

This story is about an important Oval Office meeting featuring @BarackObama, @JoeBiden (sitting by the fireplace in the chairs) and top aides (on the couch) in 2011, after they barely averted the cliff. “They said: This is the sad lesson we’ve learned.” https://t.co/8n4IIRZG06 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

And for all the focus on 2011, the way to understand Biden’s position is to look at what happened after. Obama White House said it’s non-negotiable and a GOP-led House extended the debt limit 4 more times—2013 (X2), 2014, 2015—with no threat of default. https://t.co/8n4IIRZG06 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

There’s a yawning gap in how the two parties see the 2011 debt limit debate. Republicans see a glorious success to repeat—they stared down a Dem president and extracted $2T in cuts. Biden & Dems see a fiasco to avoid, one that nearly torched the economy. https://t.co/8n4IIRZG06 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

On @POTUS’s schedule for this Wednesday Feb. 1, per White House: “The President will host Speaker McCarthy for a meeting at the White House to discuss a range of issues.” — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

RT @SalehaMohsin: Never again: How a 'lesson of 2011' shaped Biden's no-negotiation stance on the debt limit Smart read by @sahilkapur ---… — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

Looking back, 2011 was that rare once-in-a-generation moment for those who wanted to shrink the safety net. Obama WH was so spooked by 2010 they thought there was a mandate for it. It failed for various reasons, the most ironic of which was tea party purity against higher taxes. — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

As for “entitlements”? Fuggetaboutit. For all the 2011 bombast, GOP leaders were too skittish about Social Security & Medicare politics to publicly write & own a set of cuts. Then Obama won ‘12 by bashing Romney-Ryan economics. Rise of Bernie & populist left = nail in the coffin. — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

And this is the other lesson of 2011, which I lightly touched on in the piece: Neither party had an appetite to sustain those cuts. Republicans wanted military spending back up, Democrats wanted domestic spending back up. That became the template for future budget deals. 🤝 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

“Two other donors who contributed $1,500 and $2,000, respectively, were listed in Santos’ FEC filings as retirees residing at addresses that do not exist. One was named Rafael Da Silva—which happens to be the name of a Brazilian soccer player.” — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

2011 experience is key to grasping Biden’s red line on the debt ceiling today. After that near miss, Obama-Biden WH refused to negotiate with threat of default on the table. It worked. House GOP backed off, extended it with fig leafs or pre-agreed budgets. https://t.co/8n4IIRZG06 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

New: In 2011, Obama White House agreed to negotiate with House Republicans on the debt limit. It went badly. Talks faltered and pushed US to the brink of default. Obama & Biden sat in the Oval and decided: Never again. That forms Biden’s stance today. https://t.co/8n4IIRZG06 — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

RT @maggieNYT: Trump has increasingly posted or reposted content highlighting the violent conspiracy theory QAnon on his Truth Social websi… — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

RT @wildstein: This is a big deal: @JoshGottheimer, possibly eyeing a gubernatorial ran, has hired a nationally prominent Democratic strate… — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

RT @KristenhCNN: Former President Trump took aim at FL Gov. Ron DeSantis’ Covid-19 record, saying he and his team were “trying to rewrite h… — PolitiTweet.org

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

Election denialism fueled defeats for Arizona Republicans in races for Senate, governor, secretary of state and attorney general in 2022. They don’t appear to be interested in changing course. — PolitiTweet.org