David Frum

David Frum @davidfrum

The total budget for the INE, including operating the national ID system, including funding the parties, including monitoring broadcast media for illegal party messaging, including staffing and overseeing 900+ polling places adds up to about $1 billion US per year. PS10/x — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

...that while most democratic voting systems are based on large elements of trust, the Mexican system is shaped to inoculate against a long history of distrust. It's complex, cumbersome, and therefore expensive. But let's put the cost in context: PS9/x — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

... the electoral authority recruits randomly invited citizen volunteers through a complex lottery system, then trains them to run elections, federal, state, and local too. That's a cost. The president of the INE's governing commission said to me when I visited last month, PS8/x — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

Then of course there is the cost of actually running elections. Under the old one-party state, Mexican polling places were staffed by officials answerable to the ruling party. Those same officials counted the ballots to prevent unwanted outcomes. As a counter-measure, PS7/x — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

The old one-party state used radio and TV as tools of party propaganda for itself. Mindful of this history, Mexican law strictly regulates party-political content on radio and TV. The INE has the burdensome and costly job of monitoring radio and TV to ensure compliance. PS6/x — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

Mexican elections are publicly financed - or are supposed to be, anyway. The public funds for the major parties are routed through the electoral authority, and are included in its budget. The INE is just a pass-through and auditing entity for this money. PS5/x — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

the electoral authority issues ID that Mexicans use not only to vote, but to board planes, open bank accounts, etc. Cards are issued when citizens reach voting age, are expunged at death, and must be canceled and reissued if citizens move to a new Mexican state. That costs. PS4/x — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

The electoral authority is tasked, among other things, with operating Mexico's most important form of national ID. Back when Mexico was a one-party state, the ruling party grossly manipulated voting rolls - eliminating opposition voters, eg. To prevent any repeat PS3/x — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

It's true that the Mexican elections authority has a substantial budget, about $1 billion a year. But you need to reckon with the functions assigned to the authority to understand why it's so very very wrong to imagine this billion as any kind of improper enrichment. PS2/x — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

After you've read the thread above, a rebuttal to the claim by Lopez Obrador and his supporters that they are attacking independent elections because the elections authority is "too expensive." This claim is misleading and intentionally misleading .... — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

In a minute, I'm going to post a PS to the below thread, replying to the main criticism that Lopez Obrador and his supporters bring against Mexico's independent-of-the-president electoral authority. .... The PS will be appended at the bottom — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

RT @jorge_guajardo: I agree with absolutely everything David Frum says about Mexico. It is the most insightful take I’ve ever heard from so… — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

RT @melissakchan: 🇲🇽 "If López Obrador succeeds in manipulating the next elections in his party’s favor, he will do more damage to the legi… — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

RT @ceciliasotog: La calidad de la democracia en Mexico -y los riesgos de debilitarla- son ya tema de preocupación entre analistas estudios… — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

RT @creechan: This thread by @davidfrum is an accurate account of political maneuvering that will undermine 30 years of democratic advances… — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

RT @Sean_Speer: .@davidfrum warned of this possibility in our recent @TheHubCanada dialogue. Listen to or watch the full conversation her… — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

But neither can the US be indifferent. The two societies interpenetrate in so many ways, more so now than ever before. Mexico's troubles are America's troubles, inescapably and intimately. Both democracies are being tested, severely. They need to support each other. END — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

It would be unwise to overstate what the US can immediately do. Overt American hostility to his rule will provide a resource for the wily and still-popular Lopez Obrador to exploit for his own sinister ends. The US should not let itself become the story here. 18/x — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

The transactional approach is now dangerously failing. The supreme US interest is a stable, peaceful, prosperous Mexico. Everything else is secondary - important also, but not a substitute for the supreme goal of the success of Mexican state and society. 17/x — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

Under Trump and now under Biden, the United States has taken a highly transactional approach to Lopez Obrador. The… https://t.co/BEivzX7Gb5 — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

distract you from the realities of AMLO's power and that power's goals. AMLO = Orban, Orban = AMLO. The targets of… https://t.co/T6A27aBRKe — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

Second, please delete the habit of referring to some authoritarians as "left wing" and some as "right wing." The excuses for authoritarian rule may be ideologically seasoned, but the mechanics of authoritarian rule are not. Don't let sympathy (if any) for AMLO's rhetoric 14/x — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

Two requests of Americans who might be reading this thread tonight. First, pay attention. The United States has not always been a good neighbor to Mexico, and American intentions are often distrusted - for good reason. But American care and concern matters, and a lot. 13/x — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

This is not just a Mexican problem! It's a route to a failed state just a few minutes drive from California, Texas, and Arizona. 12/x — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

The nightmare to fear in Mexico is autocracy at the center - surrounded by anarchy and violence in hinterlands where criminal syndicates have replaced the state as the true government: collecting protection money instead of taxes, providing thug security instead of law. 11/x — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

continued control of the Mexican state. But here's the alarm for all North Americans: the Mexican state is disintegrating. Lopez Obrador's bid for extended power will discredit his designated successor. The power of the state will weaken further. 10/x — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

Almost every Mexican president since Plutarco Calles in the 1920s has aspired to extend his power beyond his legal term. Lopez Obrador has found a method to do so. Given the weakness of other Mexican institutions, continued control of the presidency means 9/x — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

Second, he has redirected much of the Mexican economy into the hands of the military - including that corruption vortex, the customs services. There are a lot of generals and admirals who will owe their fortunes to Lopez Obrador - and over whom he will hold dirty secrets. 8/x — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

First, he has amended the Mexican constitution to enable recall elections if a tiny number of citizens sign a petition requesting one. This is a threat a popular ex-president can hold over a dependent new president. 7/x — PolitiTweet.org

David Frum @davidfrum

But he will want a compliant successor, and now he has the means to ensure one: presidential control of the elections machinery. Then, once he has installed a complaint successor, he has two further weapons of control over that person. 6/x — PolitiTweet.org