Walter Shapiro

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

And also remember places like El Paso before you resort to gunfight imagery to describe one candidate's attack on another. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@rawatersjr @kausmickey It's even worse than that. Roughly 140,000 Democrats participated in the caucuses in 2004, 240,000 Democrats in 2008 and 180,000 in 2016. Nobody knows the next number in that sequence. And it is impossible to have a meaningful poll if you have no idea who will turn out. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

I would love to kill the journalistic tradition of the Debate Preview. They tend to over-hype everything and they're usually wrong. Why not go all the way and require every political reporter to also write an October debate preview tonight. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@david_darmofal Yes, that was the previous winner. But it is always inspiring when a writer tops himself. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@StevenHerbert But Rahm for president is a tough one to beat. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

We have a winner. The wildest, the wrongest political column on 2019: https://t.co/sdYupYNn7y — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

I somehow had not read this 2015 Tom Junod piece on "The Falling Man," what photography reveals and distorts and how we honor 9/11. I read it just now and I doubt that I will ever forget it. Please read it. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@petermarksdrama Slightly oversimplifying: You need roughly the same sample size in a poll to survey NH as you do to poll America. So at, say, $50,000 a poll (a current estimate), separate surveys of IA, NH and SC would cost $150,000. Plus a national poll sounds so much more dramatic. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@ChristianLindke The problem is (and I'm oversimplifying) you can't get a random sample from an Internet poll. And many cell phone-only users won't answer a call from an unknown number. So there are a lot of desperate experiments going on with mixed modes of calls and text messages and online. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@jamespmanley I was just throwing it out there as an illustration that, in theory, it can always get worse under Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@jamespmanley I'm still betting on Gorka. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@ChristianLindke Absolutely. The other problem is that low response rates have caused the cost of good telephone polls to soar. I've heard that it's now $50,000 per poll. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

Reminder #612: We don't have a national primary. The reason why we're drowning in national polls is that they are lot cheaper to do than polling NH, IA and SC individually. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@kausmickey Thank you for including her. Deborah deserves to be remembered more than she is. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@ArtL7 @JamesFallows Let's merely say that I have reached the stage where even 11 hours of sleep doesn't make me feel fully "woke." — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@AndreiCherny @DemJournal I will read the piece since the question fascinates me. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@JoeOfTheNorth You may well be right. But after World War II, there were dozens of fictionalizations that touched on Pearl Harbor. A related notion: We are now at the point when college freshmen were not born on 9/11. And a good chunk of millennial voters are too young to remember it. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@SenatorZero I remember the documentary. But I was talking about fiction. But maybe it defeats fiction or non-documentary moviemaking. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@rachel_x_graves @jmartNYT @powellnyt @RyanLizza @ericswalwell @amyklobuchar @PeteButtigieg Really good point. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

On this sad anniversary, I think it's worth mentioning that we still do not have the defining 9/11 novel or movie. My point is that even 18 years later, it remains so hard to emotionally grapple with what happened on that horrendous morning. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@jmartNYT @powellnyt @RyanLizza @ericswalwell @amyklobuchar @PeteButtigieg Other possibilities: 1). Klobuchar hopes to be on Biden VP short list; 2). Her whole appeal is Midwestern Nice which doesn't fit with going on the attack; 3). She think it's still too early; 4). She's trying to appeal to Biden donors as 2nd choice insurance. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@powellnyt @jmartNYT @RyanLizza @ericswalwell @amyklobuchar @PeteButtigieg Regarding Klobuchar: In a 10-way debate, there is no guarantee that the candidate going on the attack will reap the benefits. Even truer five months before Iowa. Strategy for all the trailing moderates: Better than expected in Iowa as Biden ends up worse than expected. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@dkahanerules Not much of a football team. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@dkahanerules As I recall 1492 was not a banner year for Jews in Spain so those Ferdinand and Isabella parallels sound a little ominous. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

How about John Dingell and special election? — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@LachlanMcIntosh @nathanlgonzales I was right. The original version of the line was coined by Dick Tuck in 1966: https://t.co/EZUsyO2Xfp — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@LachlanMcIntosh @nathanlgonzales Alex Sanders is one of the funniest people I've met in politics. I haven't checked, but I have a hunch that the earliest version of that line came from prankster Dick Tuck, who lost a California state senate race in the 1960s. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@nathanlgonzales My favorite entry for a losing candidate (and I hope somebody really said it): "The voters have spoken -- the bastards." — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

It's still too soon to write off any serious candidate who has qualified for the debate. Just because TV pundits are impatient with their talk of a three-candidate race, there is no reason why you should accept their glib conclusions. That's what I think after a weekend in NH. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

Now that the Democrats have lost NC-9 by 4000 votes, I assume that means that the 2020 election has been decided and maybe 2024 as well. Seriously, I have always had problems with the notion that special elections are a barometer of anything. — PolitiTweet.org