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Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@SenatorZero Not fully. At least, I don’t remember reading or hearing it. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@pattmlatimes @SenatorZero Iowa is particularly tricky to poll since caucus turnout varies wildly. It had been as low as about 140,000 (2004) and as high as 240,000 (2008). Current estimates of 250,000+ are just wild guesses. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
And a private plane will soon be waiting and waiting and waiting at the Albany Airport to fly Mario Cuomo to Concord to file for the NH primary. Except Cuomo never got on it. — PolitiTweet.org
Steve Kornacki @SteveKornacki
28 years ago tonight: NBC hosts the *first* debate of the 1992 Dem race. Six major candidates — Jerry Brown, Bill… https://t.co/mzn5VG0Gab
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@pattmlatimes Polling each state is roughly equivalent in cost to a national poll. And a national poll sounds so much more impressive even if it is largely meaningless and this point. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@SenatorZero I only felt that way about the House Judiciary Committee since life is too short to listen to 41 opening statements. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
As someone also single-mindedly focused on the 2020 Democrats, I use my blurriness on impeachment as a reminder of how shallow poll responses are when someone is not closely following that part of the news. Applies to much 2020 polling as well. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Weigel @daveweigel
Have accidentally become a perfect low-information voter because I'm following the primary campaign instead of impe… https://t.co/4Ywg5aaxcb
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@GoldenDog63 @BrennanCenter 1). In the column I argue that SC (more than half African American in the Democratic primary) should be second after NH. 2). What’s your strategy for mandating free broadcast time? People have been trying since the 1960s. 3) Not all candidates begin with big-money backing. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
You may be right. But Buttigieg numbers, for example, are much higher in Iowa and NH. Also I remain dubious that a majority of March 3rd primary voters are paying attention yet. Too much else like impeachment is going on. — PolitiTweet.org
Bill Scher @billscher
@MrWalterShapiro True! Though 1) I think we have seen in this race the national numbers influence the state numbers… https://t.co/UDXf83isAe
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@KevinMaddenDC @ChuckLane1 Thanks. A much better list than I could come up with from the back of an early-morning can. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@HotlineJosh I know. I would love to see the results of Drew tried that. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@therealsplett2 In 1960s was his party switch. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
Phil Gramm in 1983 is the success story for party switchers. He held onto his seat and went to the Senate as a Republican. — PolitiTweet.org
Jake Sherman @JakeSherman
Last member of congress to switch parties — I think — was Alabama’s Parker Griffith. He lost the GOP primary to Mo Brooks.
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
Morning reminder that we don’t have a national primary. And the numbers nationally will fluctuate wildly after Iowa and NH. — PolitiTweet.org
Bill Scher @billscher
Fox News national poll Biden 30 Sanders 20 Warren 13 Buttigieg 7 Klobuchar 5 Bloomberg 5 Yang 3 Gabbard 3 Booker… https://t.co/vvRwQ6AM08
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
He also was on the grassy knoll in Dallas in 1963. Seriously, you are massively overstating the power of a McKinsey associate to be the one to shape recommendations from the data. — PolitiTweet.org
Ռայան Ադհամ🌹 @veryonlineryan
@newrepublic @MrWalterShapiro uhhhh it’s likely that Pete is a spook (“economic development in a war zone”), he wor… https://t.co/jO15uBT2xU
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@EBOlady I am not 100 percent sure of anything, though I have lots of problems with all the columns in the Times equating Corbyn with Bernie/Warren and Boris with Trump. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@LeslieFeffer Yikes. They were up early for borderline alcoholics. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@RachelBitecofer @SeanTrende Bernie will also lose because the Democrats have basically eliminated caucuses. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
I am not an expert on British politics. But I am exceedingly dubious that there are any lessons for US politics in the British results. Jeremy Corbyn is not running in the Democratic primaries. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
No better feeling than to be at Penn Station about to leave town for 24 hours as the first wave of SantaCon forces arrive in NYC. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
As I write after my interview, it is much more interesting why Buttigieg went to McKinsey than what he did there. As a former McKinsey partner told me, “New associates do what they’re told. It’s like the Army.” — PolitiTweet.org
The New Republic @newrepublic
It would be easy to let Buttigieg’s time at McKinsey morph into the Democratic equivalent of Mitt Romney’s tenure a… https://t.co/u4KmnP2Ciq
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
Me in @newrepublic: "After achieving the perfect high-achiever résumé with Harvard and a Rhodes scholarship, Buttigieg may simply have longed for yet another gold star by joining McKinsey, which brutally culls the herd of new associates after two years." https://t.co/s5JvBAxVOX — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
After interviewing Buttigieg in Iowa, I conclude @newrepublic that the McKinsey furor is more interesting in terms of why he went to the consulting firm than what he actually did there. Like so much in campaigns, it is hopelessly over-hyped as a scandal: https://t.co/s5JvBAxVOX — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@StevenHerbert Don't remember Baker's slogan. But I was at the 1979 Maine Straw Poll that, supposedly, Bill Cohen had wired for Baker. But it was treated as an epic setback when Bush beat Baker in this meaningless vote. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
I remember seeing George Bush in 1980 doing push-ups at the YMCA in Des Moines supposedly to prove that he was “up for the Eighties” and Reagan wasn’t. — PolitiTweet.org
Steve Kornacki @SteveKornacki
Ronald Reagan was 68 when he set out to run in 1980, nearly a decade younger than Joe Biden now is. But back then,… https://t.co/ZyUbAUhNUS
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@patmonte007 @JonHeyman Should I give you an address where you can send the Bitcoin in October 2020? — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@ClydeHaberman @JonHeyman That was what I was referring to. Only one since 2000. Like many of my tweets, it could have been worded better. Someday, oh Lord, an edit button. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@JonHeyman I'm still happy to bet that the Yankees will still have only one World Series championship since 2000 when the 2020 season is over. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@david_darmofal Guess we're doomed to disagree. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@david_darmofal That's a high bar. But they both certainly had a shot at the nomination. Also, since the dawn of cable TV, there have been exactly four contested Democratic races and five contested GOP races. Not exactly a huge sample size. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@david_darmofal Same could be said about Gary Hart at this point in late 1983. Or Rick Santorum on eve of the 2012 Iowa caucuses that he won. Free media from running well in Iowa covers a multitude of sins. Of course, Klobuchar is a long-shot. But she definitely has a shot at the nomination. — PolitiTweet.org
